Jul 6, 20212 min read

NBA: 2021 Finals preview, predictions

The 2021 NBA Finals get going on Tuesday, July 6 as the #2 Phoenix Suns (51-21, 12-4) host Game 1 against the #3 Milwaukee Bucks (46-26, 12-6). Chris Paul is making his first appearance in the Finals after being drafted in 2005, while Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton look to finish their first-ever postseason with a championship ring. Milwaukee will lean on Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday as Giannis Antetokounmpo (left knee hyperextension) is questionable to return per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The Suns (-189) come in as slight favorites to win the first championship in franchise history. Check out of full Finals preview including breakout performers, key role players, game and series projections, MVP picks, and more.

Breakout performers:

Blake Stoll: DeAndre Ayton

Charles Post: DeAndre Ayton

Chinedum Wejinya: Mikal Bridges

Danny Murphy: DeAndre Ayton

Max Heningburg: DeAndre Ayton

Raven Martín: Cameron Johnson

Tyler Taylor: Jrue Holiday

Key role players:

Blake Stoll: Jrue Holiday

Charles Post: Brook Lopez

Chinedum Wejinya: Cameron Payne

Danny Murphy: Cameron Payne

Max Heningburg: Jae Crowder

Raven Martín: Mikal Bridges

Tyler Taylor: Brook Lopez

DeAndre Ayton earned the most recognition for our potential breakout performer as he's averaged 16.2 points and 11.8 rebounds on an outstanding 70.6% shooting from the field during the playoffs. Ayton has more than held his own versus Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, and Ivica Zubac thus far and we expect him to against Brook Lopez. Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cameron Johnson, and Cameron Payne are other Suns players that will play important roles. A possible breakout performer and key role player, Jrue Holiday needs to be locked in on both ends of the floor for the Bucks to compete for a championship. He's averaged 17.6 points, 8.4 assists, and 5.6 rebounds in 17 games during the playoffs.

Game-by-game chances:

Game 1: Suns (85.6%)

Game 2: Suns (71.4%)

Game 3: Bucks (57.1%)

Game 4: Bucks (71.4%)

Game 5: Suns (66.7%)

Game 6: Suns (50.1%)

Finals MVP picks:

Blake Stoll: Devin Booker

Charles Post: Chris Paul

Chinedum Wejinya: Devin Booker

Danny Murphy: Devin Booker

Max Heningburg: Chris Paul

Raven Martín: Chris Paul

Tyler Taylor: Khris Middleton

According to our projections, the Suns will take a 2-0 series lead into Game 3 on Sunday night by protecting their home court with a pair of victories. Phoenix has an 85.6% chance to win Game 1 but the Bucks could steal Game 2 on Thursday. Milwaukee is favored to take both games at home, although the Suns (42.9%) have a good chance for a road win. If that's the case, Phoenix will be in position to close out the series in either Game 5 or Game 6. We predict the Suns, who are led by arguably the NBA's best backcourt, will win their first title as Devin Booker or Chris Paul take home the MVP award. Antetokounmpo's status will certainly have a major impact on who wins it all but we'll take the Suns to be the last team standing.

Staff predictions:

Blake Stoll: Suns (6)

Charles Post: Suns (6)

Chinedum Wejinya: Suns (7)

Danny Murphy: Suns (6)

Max Heningburg: Suns (5)

Raven Martín: Suns (5)

Tyler Taylor: Bucks (7)

Playoff records:

Max Heningburg: 14-4

Blake Stoll: 14-4

Charles Post: 13-5