Aug 17, 20207 min read

NBA: First Round playoff predictions

#1 Bucks (56-17) vs #8 Magic (33-40): Milwaukee's five-out offense is designed to get a scorer the ball at the top of the key, mainly Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.5 points, 13.6 rebounds per game) and Khris Middleton, and they have a ton of options out of it. Mike Budenholzer also likes to get Antetokounmpo the ball at the elbow for a quick isolation, and it's nearly impossible to defend consistently. The Magic are a pretty good defensive team, coming in at #10 in the league, but they'll miss Jonathan Isaac a lot who is out for the year with a torn ACL. Nikola Vucevic (19.6 points, 10.6 rebounds per game) is a player to watch on offense for Orlando but it won't be enough to pull off an upset or even win a game. The Bucks should be able to sweep with relative ease.

Series Picks: Ariun Paige: Bucks (4) Blake Stoll: Bucks (4)

Caleb Henderson: Bucks (5)

Charles Post: Bucks (4) Chinedum Wejinya: Bucks (4)

Luke Gremban: Bucks (4) Max Heningburg: Bucks (4) Raven Martín: Bucks (4)

Tunde Aduroja: Bucks (4) Tyler Taylor: Bucks (4)

MVP Picks:

Paige: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)

Stoll: Khris Middleton (Bucks)

Henderson: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)

Post: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)

Wejinya: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)

Gremban: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)

Heningburg: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)

Martín: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)

Aduroja: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)

Taylor: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)

#2 Raptors (53-19) vs #7 Nets (35-37): Toronto was one of the more impressive teams in the seeding games, going 7-1 with victories over the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, and others. The Raptors tend to use a 1-2-2 zone, especially late in games, with Pascal Siakam at the top. He is able to cause a lot of problems with his length and the team forces plenty of turnovers with high level defenders like O.G. Anunoby, Kyle Lowry (19.4 points, 7.5 assists per game), Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka. One of Brooklyn's favorite sets is a Caris LeVert (18.7 points on 42.5% from the field) post-up on the block and an away screen-and-curl for Joe Harris but unfortunately for the Nets, it's going to be challenging to score efficiently versus Nick Nurse's defense. Toronto in 4-5 seems likely.

Series Picks: Ariun Paige: Raptors (4) Blake Stoll: Raptors (5)

Caleb Henderson: Raptors (6)

Charles Post: Raptors (5) Chinedum Wejinya: Raptors (4)

Luke Gremban: Raptors (6) Max Heningburg: Raptors (5) Raven Martín: Raptors (5) Tunde Aduroja: Raptors (5)

Tyler Taylor: Raptors (4)

MVP Picks:

Ariun Paige: Pascal Siakam (Raptors)

Blake Stoll: Pascal Siakam (Raptors)

Caleb Henderson: Kyle Lowry (Raptors)

Charles Post: Pascal Siakam (Raptors)

Chinedum Wejinya: Pascal Siakam (Raptors)

Luke Gremban: Pascal Siakam (Raptors)

Max Heningburg: Fred VanVleet (Raptors)

Raven Martín: Kyle Lowry (Raptors)

Tunde Aduroja: Kyle Lowry (Raptors)

Tyler Taylor: Pascal Siakam (Raptors)

#3 Celtics (48-24) vs #6 76ers (43-30): Boston has had Philadelphia's number for the last few seasons and without Ben Simmons, I don't see the 76ers having a realistic chance to win this series. The Celtics are an extremely well-coached team with Brad Stevens at the helm, and he likes to run double screens for Kemba Walker (20.4 points, 4.8 assists per game) to put him in a position to score from the outside. In that set, one of the screeners is Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum, which makes them a lethal second option. On defense, the Celtics tend to ice ball screens and switch pretty much everything, which makes them a dominant defensive team. Joel Embiid (23.0 points on 47.7% from the field) will get a lot of post touches without Simmons but it won't be enough to win more than a game or two.

Series Picks: Ariun Paige: Celtics (6) Blake Stoll: Celtics (6)

Caleb Henderson: Celtics (7)

Charles Post: Celtics (5) Chinedum Wejinya: Celtics (5)

Luke Gremban: Celtics (6) Max Heningburg: Celtics (6) Raven Martín: Celtics (6) Tunde Aduroja: Celtics (7)

Tyler Taylor: 76ers (7)

MVP Picks:

Ariun Paige: Jayson Tatum (Celtics)

Blake Stoll: Jayson Tatum (Celtics)

Caleb Henderson: Jaylen Brown (Celtics)

Charles Post: Jayson Tatum (Celtics)

Chinedum Wejinya: Jayson Tatum (Celtics)

Luke Gremban: Joel Embiid (76ers)

Max Heningburg: Jayson Tatum (Celtics)

Raven Martín: Kemba Walker (Celtics)

Tunde Aduroja: Kemba Walker (Celtics)

Tyler Taylor: Joel Embiid (76ers)

#4 Pacers (45-28) vs #5 Heat (44-29): Indiana may come into this series as the higher seed but Miami is healthier, more talented, and should be able to win the series without it going the distance. On offense, the Heat have started to use Bam Adebayo in the Nikola Jokić type of role, where he'll bring the ball up and it leads to a lot of handoffs for Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson (42.% from 3-point range in the bubble), who can all catch-and-shoot from that set. Miami also uses a 2-3 zone frequently and I expect that to continue into the postseason. Butler, Goran Dragić, Herro, and Kendrick Nunn are all capable perimeter defenders and will look to contain Victor Oladipo and T.J. Warren (31.0 points on 57.8% from the field in the bubble). Miami wins it in six or seven games.

Series Picks: Ariun Paige: Heat (7) Blake Stoll: Heat (7)

Caleb Henderson: Heat (6)

Charles Post: Heat (6) Chinedum Wejinya: Heat (7)

Luke Gremban: Heat (5) Max Heningburg: Heat (6) Raven Martín: Heat (5) Tunde Aduroja: Heat (6)

Tyler Taylor: Pacers (7)

MVP Picks:

Ariun Paige: Goran Dragic (Heat)

Blake Stoll: Jimmy Butler (Heat)

Caleb Henderson: Tyler Herro (Heat)

Charles Post: Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Chinedum Wejinya: Jimmy Butler (Heat)

Luke Gremban: Jimmy Butler (Heat)

Max Heningburg: Jimmy Butler (Heat)

Raven Martín: Jimmy Butler (Heat)

Tunde Aduroja: Jimmy Butler (Heat)

Tyler Taylor: Victor Oladipo (Pacers)

#1 Lakers (52-19) vs #8 Trail Blazers (35-39): Los Angeles struggled in the seeding games, finishing with a 3-5 record, and it caused some concern especially on the offensive end. The Lakers consistently try to get easy switches for LeBron James (25.3 points, 10.2 assists per game) and Anthony Davis at the elbow or in the post. They will also run a ton of pick-and-pops with LeBron as the passer, setting up guys like Davis, Danny Green, and Kyle Kuzma for open 3-pointers. It's going to be hard for the Trail Blazers to get stops because their backcourt is undersized and they have no one that can defend Davis or LeBron. With that said, the Bubble MVP Damian Lillard (37.6 points on 49.7% from the field in the bubble) seems like he's on a mission to pull off an upset. LA should win in 4-5 games.

Series Picks: Ariun Paige: Lakers (5) Blake Stoll: Lakers (6)

Caleb Henderson: Lakers (5)

Charles Post: Lakers (5) Chinedum Wejinya: Lakers (5)

Luke Gremban: Lakers (6) Max Heningburg: Lakers (5) Raven Martín: Lakers (4) Tunde Aduroja: Lakers (4)

Tyler Taylor: Lakers (4)

MVP Picks:

Ariun Paige: LeBron James (Lakers)

Blake Stoll: Anthony Davis (Lakers)

Caleb Henderson: Anthony Davis (Lakers)

Charles Post: LeBron James (Lakers)

Chinedum Wejinya: Anthony Davis (Lakers)

Luke Gremban: Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers)

Max Heningburg: LeBron James (Lakers)

Raven Martín: LeBron James (Lakers)

Tunde Aduroja: LeBron James (Lakers)

Tyler Taylor: Anthony Davis (Lakers)

#2 Clippers (49-23) vs #7 Mavericks (43-32): Los Angeles likes to set high ball screens out of the horns set, in order to free up their three main scorers: Kawhi Leonard (27.1 points, 7.1 rebounds per game), Paul George, and Lou Williams. They also use multiple screens to further confuse defenses and force switches that the defense doesn't want. Dallas, on the other hand, has the #1 offense in league history as they average 117.0 points per game. The Mavericks run a five-out offense, which is designed to get Luka Donćić (30.0 points, 10.3 rebounds per game in the bubble) going downhill so he can finish at the rim, kick to the corner, or easy throw lobs. The Mavericks have the talent to pull off an upset here but the Clippers are the perfect team to defend them because of their versatility. Clippers in 5-6.

Series Picks: Ariun Paige: Clippers (5) Blake Stoll: Clippers (6)

Caleb Henderson: Clippers (6)

Charles Post: Clippers (6) Chinedum Wejinya: Clippers (5)

Luke Gremban: Clippers (5) Max Heningburg: Clippers (4) Raven Martín: Clippers (5) Tunde Aduroja: Clippers (5)

Tyler Taylor: Clippers (4)

MVP Picks:

Ariun Paige: Kawhi Leonard (Clippers)

Blake Stoll: Kawhi Leonard (Clippers)

Caleb Henderson: Paul George (Clippers)

Charles Post: Kawhi Leonard (Clippers)

Chinedum Wejinya: Kawhi Leonard (Clippers)

Luke Gremban: Kawhi Leonard (Clippers)

Max Heningburg: Kawhi Leonard (Clippers)

Raven Martín: Paul George (Clippers)

Tunde Aduroja: Kawhi Leonard (Clippers)

Tyler Taylor: Kawhi Leonard (Clippers)

#3 Nuggets (46-27) vs #6 Jazz (44-28): Denver comes into this series as favorites, but only because Utah will be without their second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanović, who went down with a season-ending injury. With that said, the Nuggets have the #5 offense and run everything through Nikola Jokic (19.9 points, 9.7 rebounds per game). Mike Malone tries to get his big man the ball as much as possible, whether it's at the elbow, at the top of the key, or in the post. In the clutch, Denver tends to go to a Jamal Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll that causes so much trouble for defenses. Meanwhile, the Jazz run the most ball screens in the league and use a screen into a handoff action very effectively to get Donovan Mitchell (24.0 points on 44.9% from the field) on the move. I like Utah but Denver should win in six or seven games.

Series Picks: Ariun Paige: Nuggets (7) Blake Stoll: Jazz (7)

Caleb Henderson: Jazz (6)

Charles Post: Nuggets (6) Chinedum Wejinya: Nuggets (7)

Luke Gremban: Jazz (5) Max Heningburg: Nuggets (7) Raven Martín: Jazz (7) Tunde Aduroja: Nuggets (5)

Tyler Taylor: Nuggets (6)

MVP Picks:

Ariun Paige: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Blake Stoll: Donovan Mitchell (Jazz)

Caleb Henderson: Donovan Mitchell (Jazz)

Charles Post: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Chinedum Wejinya: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Luke Gremban: Donovan Mitchell (Jazz)

Max Heningburg: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Raven Martín: Donovan Mitchell (Jazz)

Tunde Aduroja: Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets)

Tyler Taylor: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

#4 Rockets (44-28) vs #5 Thunder (44-28): Houston's offense is obviously isolation-based, as it has been for the last few years, but there's even more room now that they're full five-out without Clint Capela. With the current rotation, the middle of the lane opens up for guys like Russell Westbrook and Danuel House to cut when James Harden attacks off the dribble, which results in a ton of layups and wide open 3-pointers. It's going to be key for Robert Covington, Eric Gordon (13.0 points per game since returning from injury in the bubble), and P.J. Tucker to capitalize on their opportunities. However, the Rockets are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league and Steven Adams will feast off that. Chris Paul (17.6 points, 6.7 assists per game) is also going to make plays but it won't be enough in the end.

Series Picks: Ariun Paige: Rockets (6) Blake Stoll: Rockets (5)

Caleb Henderson: Thunder (7)

Charles Post: Rockets (7) Chinedum Wejinya: Rockets (6)

Luke Gremban: Rockets (5) Max Heningburg: Thunder (7) Raven Martín: Rockets (6) Tunde Aduroja: Rockets (6)*

Tyler Taylor: Thunder (7)

*OKC will win this series if Westbrook is out for any significant period of time. He's been ruled out for Game 1.

MVP Picks:

Ariun Paige: James Harden (Rockets)

Blake Stoll: James Harden (Rockets)

Caleb Henderson: Chris Paul (Thunder)

Charles Post: James Harden (Rockets)

Chinedum Wejinya: James Harden (Rockets)