CFB: The Playoff Eliminator Pt. 3
ACC:
1. Clemson (6-0)
2. NC State (5-0)
3. Duke (5-1)
The ACC has been dwindled down to just three potential College Football Playoff teams, and it only hurts the conference even more since two of them face off this weekend. Clemson (54 percent chance to make the CFP) will host NC State (8 percent) on Saturday, and the loser will be virtually eliminated from contention. Clemson has reached the playoff for the last three seasons and it seems like they're headed for that again. The Tigers are favored by 17.5 points over the Wolfpack, and should be able to take care of business after that. Their toughest games following this weekend are: @ Florida State, @ Boston College, and South Carolina. Duke (2 percent) doesn't have a very good shot, but if it happens, it'll start with Virginia this weekend.
Big Ten:
4. Ohio State (7-0)
5. Michigan (6-1)
6. Iowa (5-1)
The Big Ten, just like the ACC, is down to three programs. Ohio State (56 percent) leads the way by a good margin, and that's mainly because of two things: 1) They're currently undefeated and 2) They'll host Michigan (36 percent) on November 24th. The Wolverines have won six straight games since their Week 1 loss to Notre Dame, but that loss means there is no room for error. Jim Harbaugh's team has climbed all the way to No. 6 in the AP Poll, so if they win out, it's clear that they'll be in the playoff. That's just easier said than done. Iowa (8 percent) leads up the back end, as they have the inside route to reach the Big Ten championship game from the West division. The Hawkeyes take on Maryland on October 20th.
Big 12:
7. Oklahoma (5-1)
8. Texas (6-1)
9. West Virginia (5-1)
The Big 12 has only reached the CFP in two of the four seasons, with both of their appearances coming from Oklahoma (24 percent). The Sooners happen to have the best chance of reaching it again, but the team responsible for their lone loss: Texas (23 percent) is right there too. The Longhorns have a really good chance because of their ranked victories: No. 22 TCU, No. 17 USC, and No. 7 Oklahoma. Tom Herman has given his team a shot to return to prominence, but their chances aren't as likely after QB Sam Ehlinger went down with an injury in their 23-17 win over Baylor. West Virginia (13 percent) was undefeated until Week 7 when they slipped up on the road to Iowa State. Texas and West Virginia will meet on November 3rd.
Pac-12:
10. Oregon (5-1)
11. Colorado (5-1)
12. Washington State (5-1)
The Pac-12 has by far the worst chance of any Power 5 conference to reach the playoff, and that's mainly because of their lack of non-conference dominance. Colorado (9 percent) only has one loss, but they haven't beaten any legitimate contender, and that hurts their likelihood. Oregon (24 percent) now has the best chance of anyone in the conference after their 30-27 overtime win against Washington, which eliminated the Huskies, giving them their second loss of the season. Washington State (7 percent) has the third best shot, but their percentage isn't very high because they have to play the Ducks this weekend. The winner of that game will ascend to the top spot in the conference. Washington State is favored by three points.
SEC:
13. Alabama (7-0)
14. Georgia (6-1)
15. LSU (6-1)
16. Florida (6-1)
17. Kentucky (5-1)
The SEC is getting into the CFP. We all know that. It's likely going to be Alabama (52 percent) who leads everyone in the country, but if it's not them, it'll be someone else. They're the best conference in the country, and whoever wins the SEC championship game, will find themselves in the playoff. Following the Crimson Tide, Georgia (18 percent) has the second best opportunity after going a year ago. Although the Bulldogs were blown out, 36-16, to LSU (14 percent), they still have a better chance than the Tigers because LSU still has to play Alabama. Florida (10 percent), the second best team in the East division, has put together a five-game winning streak and still has hopes. Kentucky (6 percent) is the fifth team with a shot.
Others:
18. Notre Dame (7-0)
19. Central Florida (6-0)
20. Cincinnati (6-0)
The Group of 5 has two teams that seem like they have any chance at all, but those chances are as slim as always. Central Florida (6 percent) is riding a 19-game winning streak, the longest in the nation, but because of their lack of difficult scheduling, they likely won't even get into the top six of the committee's rankings. Notre Dame (43 percent), on the other hand, has one of the easiest schedules down the stretch and are going to be favored in the rest of their games. If all goes as planned, the Fighting Irish will finish a perfect 12-0 and should make their first CFP. The only other team with any remote chance to reach the playoff is Cincinnati (1 percent), who will get an opportunity to boost their resume against UCF on November 17th.
Photo Credit: Hawkeye Sports.
