NBA: Cavs' Guide To An Upset
There's something to be said about squaring off with familiar opponents. At this point, both the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers are very knowledgeable about the other teams' strengths and weaknesses. Four straight NBA Finals mashups against the same opponent will do that for you. We already know that Cleveland is going to have LeBron James hunt for mismatches in the pick and roll game. His targets are likely to be Stephen Curry and whatever non-Draymond Green centers the Warriors decide to employ in this series. In this postseason, LeBron's made a habit of snaking the pick and roll. However, LeBron doesn't usually use it like James Harden does in the link.
When LeBron snakes the pick and roll, he tends to retreat dribble after heading back middle (side note: snaking doesn't work if the screener doesn't hit the person he's screening. In this regard, Tristan Thompson does a great job of consistently making contact). That serves to force the screener's man to come out to guard, fully forcing the switch that he wants. The Cavs have also gotten into running a lot of quick pindowns early in the shot clock for Kyle Korver, which allows them to utilize his unique ability to shoot the ball well while sprinting to his right. In particular, his off-ball movement makes their offense significantly better. Korver and Kevin Love have also developed a really nice chemistry in reading screens and freeing each other up for open looks.
Defensively, the Cavs have shown that they prefer to switch ball screens when Curry is the ball handler. While that isn't generally a great option for them, especially because the Warriors tend to go to the Curry-Kevin Durant pick and roll more and more in important games, it's probably their best bet in this series. Trapping in that situation nets the Dubs four on three opportunities with a quality decision maker in Durant as the lead ball handler. I expect Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue to put Rodney Hood back in his rotation for this series. Hood's been awful since he was acquired from Utah, but Cleveland needs as much defensive versatility as they can find. Hood, along with Jeff Green and LeBron, may be able to provide Cleveland with that.
With those three on the court, Cleveland will have a decent combination of scoring punch and defensive versatility/switchability. If and when a lineup with those three hits the court, Love will slide down and guard Andre Iguodala. Speaking of Iguodala: his health (or lack thereof) looms large over this series. The Dubs don't really have any wings that they trust past Iguodala, and their awkward roster construction (they have six centers on the team!) means that an extended absence for Iguodala could spell trouble for them. This holds especially true due to the fact that Golden State has long used Iggy as their primary defender on LeBron. Unfortunately for the Warriors, Iguodala is out for at least the first game of this series.
Which means that Durant will have to spend the majority of his time on court guarding LeBron. Obviously, that's an exhausting task, and on an ordinary team, that would be a real problem. Luckily for the Dubs, they have Klay Thompson, who is also more than capable of guarding LeBron for stretches. Tristan Thompson's presence on the boards will be important also. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr usually gives centers on his roster not named Green a little over 20 minutes a game against Cleveland due to Thompson's offensive rebounding ability. That, in turn usually hurts the Warriors offense. In this series, Kerr would probably be suited to just play Green as much as he can get away with.
The Cavs have been bad at playing transition defense all year. Against a team like Golden State, who so often turns careless turnovers into three points, they'll need to be extra cautious with the ball. They won't be able to win this series if LeBron has to guard KD for 48 minutes, and they won't able to win this series if they lose the turnover margin. So how do they win? Easy. Cleveland wins this series by having LeBron force switches and attacking, having his shooters space the floor, getting some early offense when the floor is properly balanced and pushing the ball makes sense, and most of all, playing physical defense. In this series, they'll need to bump cutters off the ball, move people off of their spots, stay disciplined and communicate when switching.
The Cavs need all of their wings to play well in this series. Hood and Green both could potentially guard KD, which would allow LeBron to guard whichever Warriors player is least threatening offensively. That would allow James to play a little bit more of a rover role, which would certainly help Cleveland in keeping their defense organized. Full disclosure though: Hood and Green being essential to your title hopes isn't a great sign. It should also be mentioned that Love hasn't ever really had a ton of success posting up Draymond Green. Overall, the Cavs have a better chance to win this series than most people are giving them. After all, they have LeBron on the roster. However, the Warriors are the better and more versatile team. I'm taking the Warriors in six.
Photo Credit: NBA.com.
