MLB: 2017 Award Projections
Now that the regular season is over, it is time to speculate and predict who will win the various end-of-season MLB awards. This has been a wild year of individual seasons, along with many teams that way underperformed or overperformed preseason expectations. With that said, let’s hop right into predictions.
AL MVP - Aaron Judge (Yankees): Earlier this year, I wrote about how New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge’s second half slump made the MVP race so much closer. For a long time, it looked like Houston Astros second basemen Jose Altuve had the award won. Then Judge came back. In the month of September, Judge hit .300 with 15 home runs. Overall on the season, he posted a slash line of .284/.422/.627 with 52 dingers. He led the league in walks, strikeouts, and runs scored while also posting an fWAR of 8.2, best in baseball. He is my pick for AL MVP.
Other award finalists: Altuve (.346 BA, 7.5 fWAR), Mike Trout (1.071 OPS, 6.9 fWAR).
NL MVP - Joey Votto (Reds): This may be the most difficult award to predict. Nobody stood head-and-shoulders above the pack like in previous years. With seasons like this, it is important to ask the question: How important is a team’s success for individual accomplishments? Why should an individual win an award for excellence when he was not the best player in the league, but had a better supporting cast? For this reason, Arizona Diamondbacks first basemen Paul Goldschmidt and Colorado Rockies third basemen Nolan Arenado should not win NL MVP. Joey Votto was the best player in the NL this season. In a year where striking out is not seen as a bad thing for a hitter, Votto bucked that trend. He struck out 83 times, and walked 134 times. This approach at the plate helped him lead the NL in OBP (.454), OPS (1.032), and OPS+ (168). He was one of the best hitters in the game, and played a solid defensive first base. He deserves to win MVP, even though he played for a last place team.
Other award finalists: Giancarlo Stanton (59 home runs, 1.007 OPS), Paul Goldschmidt (.966 OPS, 5.3 fWAR).
AL Cy Young - Corey Kluber (Indians): It’s Cleveland Indians starter Corey Kluber, no question. Here’s a list of everything Kluber led the league in this season: Wins, ERA, complete games, shutouts, ERA+, WHIP, hits per-nine rate, and walks-per-nine rate. Voters like work horses, and Kluber was just that. Even though he only made 29 starts, he still threw for over 200 innings. Not to mention his 265 strikeouts this season, which is just off his career high of 269 from 2014, when he won the Cy Young.
Other award finalists: Chris Sale (308 Ks, 2.45 FIP), Luis Severino (2.98 ERA, 10.7 K/9).
NL Cy Young - Max Scherzer (Nationals): Coming in to this season, there were two favorites: Los Angeles Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw and Washington Nationals starter Max Scherzer. Both men lived up to those expectations, and then some. It will be a close vote, but the edge goes to Scherzer. He had a career best 2.51 ERA and led the NL with 268 strikeouts. Kershaw, on the other hand, had the best ERA in the NL with a 2.31 mark. He also had a K/9 of 10.4. The edge goes to Scherzer because he threw 25 more innings, because Kershaw spent time on the disabled list.
Other award finalists: Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke (3.29 ERA, 215 Ks).
AL Rookie of the Year - Aaron Judge (Yankees): See above. Other award finalists: Trey Mancini (24 HR, .293 BA), Matt Olson (24 HR in 59 games, 1.8 fWAR).
NL Rookie of the Year - Cody Bellinger (Dodgers): There were, overall, a good amount of good young players in the NL this year. However, one man stood far above everyone else: Dodgers first basemen Cody Bellinger. In 132 games, he smacked 39 home runs, easily the most among rookies, and was named an All-Star, after being called up on April 25.
Other award finalists: Josh Bell (26 HRs, .800 OPS), Paul Dejong (.857 OPS, 3.0 fWAR).
AL Manager of the Year - Paul Molitor (Twins): This is always a tricky award to pick. There is a lot to factor in: Team expectations, team success, actual quality of the manager, etc. Should the award go to the manager who exceeded expectations, or the one that helped keep a team with high expectations level? I am going to go with the former, and pick Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor. Last season, Minnesota had the worst record in baseball, 59-103. No team had ever made the playoffs the year after losing that many games … until this year. With a young team and no expectations, Minnesota is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2010. That has to count for something.
Other award finalists: Terry Francona (Indians), Joe Girardi (Yankees).
NL Manager of the Year - Torey Lovullo (Diamondbacks): Going by that logic, I'll pick Diamondbacks' manager Torey Lovullo. It seemed like the organization had little expectations for itself. This season proved that this team had all the right talent last year, just the wrong leadership. Bringing back a similar roster to last year, the Diamondbacks won 24 more games this year than last, earning their first playoff berth since 2011.
Other award finalists: Craig Consell (Brewers), Bud Black (Rockies).
Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated & Sporting News.
