NBA: Finals Preview and Prediction

The First, Second, and Conference Finals Round are completed, which means we have seen the playoff field narrow from 16 hopeful teams down to just two. And it's no surprise that the two teams remaining are the (1) Golden State Warriors and the (2) Cleveland Cavaliers, for the third consecutive season. Our NBA Staff of Tunde Aduroja (11-3), Caleb Henderson (10-4), Charles Post (13-1), Blake Stoll (13-1), Chinedum Wejinya (12-2), and Chase Zayac (12-2) will preview and predict who wins the rubber match in the 2017 NBA Finals.

No. 1 Golden State Warriors (67-15, 12-0) vs. No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers (51-31, 12-1)

For me, one question looms large over this series: How will the Cavaliers match up defensively? Cleveland's defensive struggles during the regular season were well publicized. During the playoffs, they've certainly been better. They've preferred to leave LeBron James on the other team's least dangerous perimeter threat, and they've let him play rover, helping out on the back lines and directing traffic.

That strategy made sense against the Pacers, Raptors, and Celtics. Against the Warriors? Not as much. Every perimeter player in their starting lineup is a major threat from three. So what do the Cavs do? Do they have James be Durant's primary defender? He's probably their best individual option on KD. But having James on Durant means that James won't stray too far off of Durant's body, meaning that Cleveland loses the help skills of one of the league's best help defenders.

Don't be surprised if Derrick Williams and Richard Jefferson see extended minutes in this series. Both have enough size and athleticism to possibly be able to guard KD and hound him a little bit. Does James guard Draymond Green like he did in last year's Finals? If he guards Green, he can roam away from him, daring him to beat the Cavs from the outside. After all, he only shot 31 percent from behind the arc in the regular season. The only problem: Green is shooting 47 percent from three in the playoffs.

Does Cleveland have him match up with Stephen Curry, giving them the ability to switch pick-and-rolls? Not likely. James can switch across the board, but the only other Cavs defender who has anywhere near that kind of versatility is Tristan Thompson. James on Curry probably leaves mismatches elsewhere. While the Warriors aren't generally too keen to stop the flow of their offense to attack individual mismatches, they've done so more often over the course of the playoffs.

The Cavs could have The King continue to play his rover role, but to do that, he'd probably have to guard whoever the Warriors' five is, whether that be Zaza Pachulia or JaVale McGee. If Andre Iguodala is on the court, the Cavs should also freely help off of him, considering he's 3-for-27 from three in these playoffs.

Ordinarily, Cleveland would want to have James guard the worst offensive perimeter player (which will be Iggy whenever he's on the court), but in this series, having James on Iggy or a Warriors' five leaves mismatches elsewhere. They'll be conceding lots of open shots to Iggy, but him shooting is definitely better than Curry, Durant, or Klay Thompson shooting. James will probably end up doing each one of these things at some point during the series. While many of their players aren't natural fits defensively in this series, Cleveland does possess one trait defensively that will enable them to have some success in this series: Their physicality.

They've shown a willingness to bump and re-route cutters. They should do that as much as possible in this series. Pay attention to the officiating. If they allow a lot of contact throughout the course of this series, the Cavs should jump for joy.

On the flip side, the Warriors are much more naturally equipped to deal with Cleveland's attack. Their length and athleticism on the wing make them a tough team to score on. They have five guys who can legitimately be James' primary defenders in Durant, Thompson, Green, Iguodala, and Shaun Livingston.

Cleveland is probably the league's best team at exploiting individual mismatches, and this series will be no exception. Expect Cleveland to run tons of pick-and-rolls to try to get Curry, Pachulia, and McGee isolated on James and Kyrie Irving. If McGee and Pachulia attempt to sit back on Irving's pick-and-rolls, you can bet that he'll knock down shots from the mid-range. In general, the 1-3 (or 3-1) pick-and-roll that the Cavs like to run with James and Kyrie have been an issue for the entire league.

If McGee and Pachulia attempt to sag back on James' pick-and-rolls, then you can expect to see him attack their bodies with a head of steam. When Cleveland uses Curry's man to screen the ball, Golden State will probably try to have Curry show on the pick-and-roll and get back to his man. Curry on Irving, while less of a mismatch, is still a matchup that Cleveland can attack.

All LeBron ever needs is to get his primary defender off his body, and then he can attack the paint and wreak havoc. Irving can score from literally anywhere, and his handles and wide array of one-on-one moves make him an incredibly tough cover. They'll probably attempt to force James to take and make jumpers, but he's done that at an above-average rate all season. He shot 36 percent from the three-point line in the regular season, which is a good number.

However, he's been on 'NBA Jam' fire in the playoffs, shooting 42 percent from three. If he continues to hit the three at that rate, the Warriors might be in trouble. Kevin Love's ability to score in the post should also come in handy. While Green is incredibly hard to score on in the post, Love has a little size over him. His ability to face up and hit jumpers will be key. Cleveland should also have Love initiate some offense in the high post. He's got the ability to score consistently from there, and his passing skills and ability to read the floor also make him a threat to find the open man and get good shots for others.

Rebounding will also be important. Golden State isn't a great rebounding team, and Thompson is one of the league's best offensive rebounders. He and Love should be able to provide the Cavs with some extra possessions in this series, especially whenever the Dubs employ Green at the center position.

One thing I think Cleveland might experiment with: Playing lineups with James at the center. If they surround him with four other shooters, they can put some lineups on the court that'll make Golden State's life pure hell. For instance, a Deron Williams-J.R. Smith-Jefferson-Williams-James lineup has athleticism, ball handling, shooting, and the ability to switch any offensive action 3-through-5. It also provides Cleveland with a counter to Golden State's vaunted Death Lineup.

Iguodala's health also casts a shadow over this series. He's the Warriors' best option on James. If his knee prevents him from being 100 percent, the Warriors will have major problems on their hands. One thing that hasn't gotten a ton of press, since they literally haven't lost a game in these playoffs: Klay Thompson has struggled shooting the ball. He's shooting 38 percent from the field in the postseason, 36 percent from the three-point line, and 81 percent from the free throw line, which is a precipitous decline from his 47/41/85 shooting splits over the course of the regular season. Can he figure things out for this series?

Who will King James guard? What will the Warriors elect to do with the 1-3 pick-and-roll that the Cavs like to run? Will Iggy and Dray make three-pointers? Will Igoudala be healthy? Can Thompson start knocking down shots again? All of these x-factors will go a long way towards determining the 2017 NBA champion.

There's always a chance that James goes supernova and wins the series for Cleveland, but that's an incredibly difficult task against a team with four All- NBA level players. Overall, I'm hedging on the Warriors offense being a little too balanced for Cleveland. I'm also hedging on them being a little bit too deep and versatile for Cleveland defensively. I'm taking the Dubs in six highly competitive, entertaining games.

-Tunde Aduroja.

Golden State is coming off of yet another sweep, blowing out the San Antonio Spurs and capping off a perfect 12-0 record in the postseason, in quick fashion, behind Stephen Curry's 31.5 points per game. On the other side of the country, Cleveland is just a step behind, going 12-1 in the playoffs, highlighted by Lebron James' 26.4 points per game. Now the two super teams will face off in the Finals for the third year in a row, in what is sure to be another thrilling series.

The Warriors are going to continue doing what they have been all season, because they've clearly perfected the system, going a combined 79-15 in the regular season and playoffs. Their offense is pretty simple. If you watch them play, Golden State feeds off of the hot hand. For example, Curry was feeling it against the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals, and when he was in the game, Draymond Green and Co. were looking for him nearly every possession.

In Round 2, the same could be said for Kevin Durant. And they're even more dangerous because sometimes multiple players can get hot in the same 48-minute span, in which they pull away by 30 points. Green is the key to the entire system because he has the ability to find the open man, handle the ball, rebound and run, and set solid screens. All of which don't take an immense amount of talent, but are still extremely essential to winning basketball.

As for the Cavaliers, they rely heavily on their three All-Stars: James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love, mainly the former two. James and Irving share the ball around, and get good looks for guys like Love, Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Tristan Thompson, and Deron Williams for the first three quarters, and then when it's winning time, they become an isolation based team.

However, if Lebron or Uncle Drew are double-teamed at any point, they still have a good eye for finding spot up shooters spread around the perimeter. On the defensive side of things, Green, the likely Defensive Player of the Year, will be tasked with guarding James. And Klay Thompson will probably defend Irving, who he has seen a ton of over the last couple of seasons, given that Curry is the weaker defender of the guards. Durant will also face off against James frequently, but given his length, he'll spend more time on Love.

As for a positional breakdown, beginning with point guards, the Warriors have a slight advantage in my eyes. Even though Irving is one hell of a player, he isn't able to impact the game as much as Curry because of the three-point shot. Even if Curry struggles to defend and share the ball at times, he is always a threat from downtown which means he has an upper hand, given that he is the best shooter in NBA history. If Curry can surpass his 25.3 points per game in the regular season with consistency, he and the Dubs should win their second title in three seasons.

At the shooting guard position, this really shouldn't even be a question, because Thompson is an All-Star, and Smith is glorified role player. But with Thompson struggling so much in the playoffs, this is much closer than expected. Thompson must get back to 46.8 percent three-point shooting, from the regular season, or else his porous play could cost the Warriors a shot at redemption. I believe shooters shoot and his shots will start falling sooner rather than later.

Oh man, Durant vs. James is what we've been waiting for all year long, ever since Durant's decision to leave Oklahoma City for The Bay Area. And now we (finally) have it in front of us. I know Durant is a top-30 player of all-time, and could get his first of many rings this season, but there is no doubt in anyone's mind that James is the better player here. The King is putting up 32.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists in the postseason, an incredible line, that Durant can't even keep up with. James will be the best player on the court, but he'll need to continue his postseason dominance, if he wants to repeat.

Love and Green have both been extremely efficient in the playoffs, playing better than they have all season long, at the perfect time, which means whoever has the one-up in this battle, could decide who takes the Larry O'Brien trophy home. Love has been on fire from downtown, and has shown an ability to rebound the ball with regularity again, but Green's 13.9 points and 8.7 rebounds per game is too much for the former UCLA forward to handle.

Golden State has a couple of centers at their disposal in Zaza Pachulia and Javale McGee, but either one of them is less effective than Tristan Thompson. He is an absolute menace on the offensive glass, and is able to finish well inside if James or Irving draw an extra defender. He's nearly averaging a double-double in the playoffs, racking up 9.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per night, and won't be able to be contained by either of the Warriors' centers.

The reserves are going to be key in this series, more than in most, because of how talented they are. Golden State boasts Shaun Livingston, Ian Clark, Andre Igoudala, Patrick McCaw, and McGee, all of whom are qualified bench players, especially Livingston and Igoudala who have produced on the big stage since 2015. Cleveland will run out Deron Williams, Iman Shumpert, Kyle Korver, Richard Jefferson, and Derrick Williams. Deron Williams and Korver will likely have an opportunity to impact the Finals more than their contemporaries, because they are both potential 15-point scorers, something that is always welcomed if starters are struggling to put the ball in the net.

Lastly, coaching is going to be a big factor, as it always is in the NBA Finals. Steve Kerr has proved to be a great coach, but he'll be sidelined for at least Game 1, and probably more, but Mike Brown has also shown an ability to lead, as the Warriors are a perfect 12-0 in the postseason. Brown will be fueled by taking down his former team, who he took to the Finals in 2007, and was subsequently fired a couple of years later, but one thing that is up in the air, is that Brown hasn't had to strategize in a meaningful game with Golden State yet. Tyronn Lue was successful last year, bringing a title to Cleveland, going 16-5 in the playoffs. And then he continued strong, reaching a 51-31 regular season record, followed by a 12-1 clip in this season's postseason. Lue has the edge because he's been with his team longer and has a ring, but Brown isn't far behind.

It's definitely going to be another compelling series, as we've seen in the last two matchups, but I'll give the edge to the Warriors. I see Golden State protecting their home floor and winning Game 7, something they failed to do in 2015-16. Durant will be the Finals MVP for the first time in his career, going for more than 27.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game.

-Charles Post

Photo Credit: SB Nation.