Apr 1, 20174 min read

CBB: Final Four Preview

The second weekend of the NCAA Tournament lived up to the hype once again, as (1) Gonzaga defeated (4) West Virginia and (11) Xavier, (3) Oregon slipped past (7) Michigan and (1) Kansas, (7) South Carolina shocked (3) Baylor and (4) Florida, and (1) North Carolina advanced over (4) Butler and (2) Kentucky. And now it's time for the Final Four. Tunde Aduroja and I have compiled our very last top-25 of the 2016-17 season, to go along with predictions for the final three games of the season, and Most Outstanding Player rankings.

Composite Top-25:

1. Gonzaga (35-1)

2. North Carolina (30-7)

3. Oregon (32-5)

4. South Carolina (26-10)

5. Kansas (31-5)

6. Arizona (32-5)

7. Kentucky (32-6)

8. UCLA (31-5)

9. Baylor (27-8)

10. Purdue (27-8)

11. Xavier (24-14)

12. Florida (27-9)

13. West Virginia (28-9)

14. Wisconsin (27-10)

15. Butler (25-9)

16. Michigan (26-12)

17. Villanova (32-4)

18. SMU (30-5)

19. Wichita State (30-5)

20. St. Mary's (29-5)

21. Cincinnati (30-6)

22. Duke (28-9)

23. Florida State (26-9)

24. Louisville (25-9)

25. Notre Dame (25-10)

Semifinal No. 1 at 6:09 ET on CBS: (1) Gonzaga vs. (7) South Carolina

Post: Give me the Bulldogs. Gonzaga has been one of the best teams in the country all season, namely because of their depth. When you have guys like Nigel Williams-Goss, Jordan Mathews, Johnathan Williams, Zach Collins, and Przemek Karnowski, there are not a lot of teams that can compete with you. South Carolina's Sindarius Thornwell has been nothing short of miraculous in March, but Mark Few's crew will use their balance to eventually outlast the Gamecocks.

Aduroja: South Carolina's tourney run has been predicated on their ability to get into passing lanes on defense and hound ball handlers on the perimeter. In this game? They'll have a different problem on their hands. Gonzaga likes to run through their 7'1, 300-pound center, Przemek Karnowski. Will South Carolina be able to cover Karnowski one-on-one? If not, they'll have to be judicious about sending double teams and rotating hard: Gonzaga shot 50 percent from the 3-point line in their Elite Eight matchup against Xavier. Karnowski's ability to read the floor out of the post makes his shooters even more dangerous because he can find them for open looks. Watch this aspect of the game closely. If South Carolina can pressure the ball on the perimeter and make entry passes to Karnowski hard, they give themselves a chance. My belief is that they won't be able to handle Karnowski down low, and Gonzaga will pull this one out.

Semifinal No. 2 at 8:49 ET on CBS: (1) North Carolina vs. (3) Oregon

Post: I'll stick with my original pick at the beginning of the tournament, saying the Tar Heels would be cutting down the nets in early April. Chris Boucher's injury hasn't hurt the Ducks yet because they have played against guard-based teams, but North Carolina's bread and butter is on the glass and in the paint. If Joel Berry II's ankles are good to go, give me the Heels in a close one. I say close because Oregon won't fold tent at any point, and they'll make a game of it. Look for Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey to continue scorching, but for Isaiah Hicks, Justin Jackson, and Kennedy Meeks to out-muscle North Carolina to a second straight National Championship game appearance.

Aduroja: Since Chris Boucher's injury, Oregon has played with a primarily small lineup. Star wing Dillon Brooks has been playing the 4, which allows him to stretch the floor and give their opponents matchup problems. In this game, Oregon will have to be effective from beyond the arc to win, since UNC has a size advantage inside with Tony Bradley, Isaiah Hicks, Luke Maye, and Kennedy Meeks. UNC is one of the country's best offensive rebounding teams, and against an Oregon team that simply doesn't have a ton of size right now, that might prove to be the difference. While UNC's bigs will almost definitely struggle guarding Dillon Brooks out on the perimeter, Oregon will probably struggle with Justin Jackson, since he'll have a smaller defender on him. UNC advances.

National Championship Game at 9:00 ET on CBS: (1) North Carolina vs. (1) Gonzaga

Post: Once again, I'm sticking with the Tar Heels. However, this team they don't have the luxury of facing a smaller team. If North Carolina is going to take down the Bulldogs, it must play their A-game. Berry will have to play like he did in the 2015 title game, and Jackson needs to continue playing like he has all season long. The keys will be outside shooting and rebounding. We know these teams are going to be able to drive and score from the post, but whoever scores more from downtown and grabs the advantage on the glass, will be crowned champions.

Aduroja: In my Gonzaga-South Carolina preview, I touched on Gonzaga's proclivity for running their offense through Przemek Karnowski. I don't think South Carolina will be able to cover him one-on-one. North Carolina is better equipped to handle him because of their deep frontcourt. They'll be able to stay home on Gonzaga's shooters and force them into tough shots. Will Gonzaga be able to cover Justin Jackson? The Bulldogs have an excellent backcourt, but I'm not sure they have anyone who'll be able to guard Jackson and stop him from getting to his spots. They'll have to be sure to rotate correctly and take a team approach to stopping such a dangerous player like Jackson. For North Carolina, Joel Berry II's health will be super important. After all, Nigel Williams-Goss and Jordan Mathews can put the ball in the bucket. Berry has been dealing with some ankle issues, which could sap some of his lateral quickness. If he isn't moving his feet well, UNC could be in trouble. With that being said, I'll be taking the Tar Heels in this one. I believe they'll handle Karnowski well enough, Jackson will be able to show off his diverse offensive skill set, and Berry will be healthy enough. In the words of the great Michael Jordan, "The ceiling is the roof!"

Post:

Tournament Record: 44-16

Overall Record: 177-71.

Winning Percentage: 71.3%.

Aduroja:

Tournament Record: 39-21.

Overall Record: 71-37.

Winning Percentage: 65.7%.

Stoll:

Tournament Record: 47-13.

Overall Record: 125-55.

Winning Percentage: 69.4%.