CFB: Predicting Every Bowl Game
Championship Week sealed the fate of every College Football Playoff contender; No. 1 Alabama defeated No. 19 Florida in the SEC championship game, No. 2 Ohio State was idle as No. 7 Penn State defeated No. 6 Wisconsin for the Big Ten crown, No. 3 Clemson snuck by No. 17 Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, and No. 4 Washington destroyed No. 8 Colorado to take the PAC-12 championship.
Now that the regular season and conference championships are complete, there are only 40 bowl games and one National Championship game remaining in the 2016-17 college football season. Blake Stoll and I are here to give our second-to-last rankings, 10 questions to watch for during bowl season, predictions for every game, and what my Heisman ballot would look like.
Composite Rankings:
1. Alabama (13-0)
2. Clemson (12-1)
3. Ohio State (11-1)
4. Washington (12-1)
5. Penn State (11-2)
6. Michigan (10-2)
7. Oklahoma (10-2)
8. Wisconsin (10-3)
9. USC (9-3)
10. Colorado (10-3)
11. Florida State (9-3)
12. Western Michigan (13-0)
13. Oklahoma State (9-3)
14. Louisville (9-3)
15. West Virginia (10-2)
16. Auburn (8-4)
17. Stanford (9-3)
18. Florida (9-4)
19. LSU (8-4)
20. Virginia Tech (9-4)
21. Temple (10-3)
22. Nebraska (9-3)
23. San Diego State (10-3)
24. Boise State (10-2)
25. Houston (9-3)
Just Missed the Cut:
26. Utah (8-4)
27. Pittsburgh (8-4)
28. Tennessee (8-4)
29. Iowa (8-4)
30. Kansas State (8-4)
Does Lamar Jackson or Deshaun Watson win the Heisman Trophy?
Post: I think it should go to the Clemson quarterback, Deshaun Watson, but I'm expecting Lamar Jackson to take home the stiff-arm. Watson (3,914 yards, 37 touchdowns) has more impressive statistics and has a better team, who is the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff. However, Jackson (3,390 yards, 30 touchdowns) took the country by storm before the calendar hit November, and even a poor finish to the season, won't be enough to lose the Heisman Trophy. One thing that Jackson (5 less interceptions) can hang his hat on is that he took care of the ball a little better than his ACC counterpart.
Stoll: Lamar Jackson wins the 2016 Heisman Trophy. His Performance is comparable to Cam Newton and Tim Tebow, when they went on to win the Heisman, with 30 passing and 20 rushing touchdowns. Don’t get me wrong, Deshaun Watson also had an impressive season with 43 total touchdowns but I think Jackson walks away with it.
Can No. 10 Colorado finish their revival season on a high note vs. No. 13 Oklahoma State in the Alamo Bowl?
Post: Give me Mason Rudolph (3,777 yards, 25 touchdowns) and the Cowboys. I really like what Coach of the Year winner, Mike McIntyre did with the Buffaloes this year, but the offense won't be able to keep up after Sefo Liufau's injury. Phillip Lindsay (1,189 yards, 16 touchdowns) must have a big game for the Buffs to have a shot. I'll take the 'Boys (+5.9 points per game) by a touchdown.
Stoll: Colorado is coming off of a great year, 10-2 in the regular season. The losses coming to No. 6 Michigan on the road and No. 9 USC on the road. Oklahoma State has a sound season as well, going 9-3, Losing a controversial matchup against Central Michigan, at Baylor and @ No. 7 Oklahoma. I think No. 10 Colorado should have no problem finding their groove again, if Liufau is healthy.
Does Ed Orgeron win his first game as head coach in the Citrus Bowl; No. 19 LSU vs. No. 14 Louisville?
Post: Yes. I think Ed Orgeron was the right choice for the Tigers after missing out on Jimbo Fisher and Tom Herman, and he will start his tenure on a high note. Derrius Guice (1,249 yards, 14 touchdowns) will play a big role with Leonard Fournette having one eye on the NFL Draft. Louisville (45.3 points per game) has one hell of an offense, but I'll take the better defense in LSU (allows 16.4 points per game). Tigers in a tight one.
Stoll: I do not think so. LSU had trouble scoring all season long against “good” opponents and the Cards fall into that category. After dropping the final two games of the season, Heisman favorite Lamar Jackson needs to show once more that he is worthy of the award and will put on a show. Louisville wins by two scores.
Is No. 12 Western Michigan going to continue the Group of 5's success vs. No. 8 Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl?
Post: I don't think so. Group of 5 teams (2-0, Boise State and Houston) have been giant killers in the New Year's Six era, but I think the streak comes to an end here. According to ESPN FPI, the Badgers are pretty big favorites (61.1 percent chance to win), and with Corey Clement (1,304 yards, 14 touchdowns) in the backfield, I like Wisconsin's chances.
Stoll: Hats off to the Broncos for winning the MAC Championship to cap off a 13-0 perfect season. Although it wasn’t so pretty at times, an undefeated season is an undefeated season. Wisconsin has three losses; vs. No. 3 Ohio State, vs. No. 5 Penn State, and at No. 6 Michigan. They should’ve won two of those games and will not lose the Cotton Bowl. The Badgers will shut down the Bronco offense and win soundly.
How will No. 6 Michigan respond against No. 11 Florida State in the Orange Bowl?
Post: The Wolverines hit a speed bump after a hot start, losing to Iowa and Ohio State in the last three weeks, but they are still one of the best teams in the country. Michigan (41.0 points per game) should be healthy after a month off and Florida State (35.3 points per game) is a year or two away from being the best team in the nation. Michigan scores more and allows less (-11.9 points per game), a formula that is undefeated for me on the season; Khakis win and go 11-2 for back-to-back seasons.
Stoll: Michigan is coming off a tough loss at Ohio State, which many people say the game should have gone the Wolverine’s way. I think that the Michigan defense will completely shut down Dalvin Cook and the Seminoles' offense to win big and take home another bowl victory.
Will Baker Mayfield throw for 300+ yards against No. 16 Auburn in the Sugar Bowl?
Post: Probably, because Baker Mayfield (305.8 yards per game) has been excellent again in 2016-17, but I'll say no because of Auburn's defense (allows 223.6 passing yards per game). However, if Mayfield does go for 300, Dede Westbrook (1,465 yards, 16 touchdowns) must have a monumental game. I think the Sooners win but Mayfield goes for about 250.
Stoll: Baker Mayfield averages 305.75 yards per game and Auburn’s defense allows 223.6. I believe that Mayfield and Dede Westbrook are one of the prime duos in all of college football and create a huge matchup issue for defenders. Once you get past Westbrook, you get a wide receiver set that is much like most other teams. You take the average WR set and add in a Heisman candidate QB and WR, it’s over. It is a safe bet that Mayfield will toss for more than 300 yards.
Who continues their hot streak; No. 5 Penn State or No. 9 USC in the Rose Bowl?
Post: I have doubted Penn State all season long, and at every turn, they proved me wrong. I did not think they could beat Ohio State, Iowa, or Wisconsin, and somehow they won all three. With that being said, I'll pick against them once more. USC (+38.8 yards per game) is just as hot, with more talent, and "home-field" advantage. Ronald Jones III (1,027 yards, 11 touchdowns) out duels Saquon Barkley (1,302 yards, 16 touchdowns) as Clay Helton returns the Trojans to the top of college football.
Stoll: I am personally not buying into Penn State. They began the season looking like the team they have been the past few seasons; average. Lost to Pitt and smacked by Michigan then a couple should-be wins an upset over the Buckeyes. Since the Ohio State game, the only true test they had was in the Big Ten Championship where they overcame a 21-point deficit. USC had a similar season losing to Alabama, Stanford and Utah in the first quarter of the season but then turned the corner with wins over Colorado and Washington. I have to take the Trojans in this virtual home game. Close, but USC brings it home.
Does No. 2 Clemson beat No. 3 Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl and get back to the CFP title game?
Post: Yes. I picked Clemson to make it here in the pre-season, but had them losing to Alabama in the Peach Bowl. Fortunately for the Tigers, they avoided that and face the Buckeyes. Deshaun Watson and J.T. Barrett are going to be a huge factors, obviously, but the running game is going to decide the winner. Give me the experienced Wayne Gallman (1,002 yards, 15 touchdowns) and Co. over Mike Weber (1,072 yards, 9 touchdowns) and the rest of the Bucks. Clemson (+26.2 yards per game) will win in a back-and-forth, thrilling contest.
Stoll: No, I do not think that it is going to happen. The only thing standing between Ohio State and that coveted CFP title game is a less consistent team who isn’t as hungry. Ohio State lost a game to Penn State, that they shouldn’t have lost but then they beat Michigan. Much more respectable loss but I don’t think the Tigers stand a chance, Ohio State wins by double-digits.
Is there any way No. 4 Washington can upset No. 1 Alabama in the Peach Bowl?
Post: Of course they have a shot, I mean Washington is the fourth best team in all of the country. Jake Browning (3,280 yards, 22 touchdowns) has been incredible this year but he has disappeared in the biggest of games. Jalen Hurts (2,592 yards, 22 touchdowns) has been just the opposite. ESPN FPI is picking Alabama (68.2 percent chance to win), as is much of the world; including me.
Stoll: There’s a way but it will not happen. After acing their final test in the PAC-12 title game against Colorado, Washington showed their true colors. Unfortunately, those colors won’t beat the Crimson Tide. I believe that there are two teams in the country that can legitimately win against Alabama and they are both from the Big Ten. Alabama will roll past the Huskies and reach the title game once more.
Who wins the National Championship?
Post: Clemson. Deshaun Watson (405 yards, 4 touchdowns) picked apart the Alabama defense in last year's title game, and he will do so again. This time around, Watson has Mike Williams (1,171 yards, 10 touchdowns), and he will make the difference. Alabama's defense (allows 11.8 points per game) has been otherworldly this year, but Clemson will force the "other guys" to step up on Alabama's offense. I think that means Ardarius Stewart (852 yards, 8 touchdowns) needs a huge performance, similarly to Amari Cooper vs. Notre Dame in the 2012-13 championship game. I'm taking Dabo Swinney's team to halt Alabama's (25 straight wins) streak and take home the third CFP title.
Stoll: I think the matchup will be Ohio State vs. Alabama. A rematch of two years ago when Ohio State beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl en route to winning the first College Football Playoff. It will be a hard fought game. A game of true grit. Shining offenses overshadowed by relentless defenses. Alabama comes out on top in a single possession game.
Bowl Game Predictions:
Post:
New Mexico > UT-San Antonio
Houston > San Diego State
Toledo > Appalachian State
Central Florida > Arkansas State
Southern Mississippi > Louisiana
Tulsa > Central Michigan
Western Kentucky > Memphis
Wyoming > BYU
Colorado State > Idaho
Louisiana Tech > Navy
Old Dominion .> Eastern Michigan
Troy > Ohio
Middle Tennessee > Hawaii
Mississippi State > Miami (OH)
Boston College > Maryland
NC State > Vanderbilt
Army > North Texas
Temple > Wake Forest
Boise State > Baylor
Washington State > Minnesota
Pittsburgh > Northwestern
Utah > Indiana
West Virginia > Miami (FL)
Texas A&M > Kansas State
South Florida > South Carolina
Virginia Tech > Arkansas
Oklahoma State > Colorado
Tennessee > Nebraska
Air Force > South Alabama
Stanford > North Carolina
Georgia > TCU Georgia Tech > Kentucky
LSU > Louisville
Florida > Iowa
Wisconsin > Western Michigan
Michigan > Florida State
Oklahoma > Auburn
USC > Penn State
Clemson > Ohio State
Alabama > Washington
Championship Week Record: 8-2.
Overall Record: 106-34 (75.7%)
Stoll:
New Mexico > UT-San Antonio
San Diego State > Houston
Appalachian State > Toledo
Central Florida > Arkansas State
Louisiana > Southern Mississippi
Central Michigan > Tulsa
Western Kentucky > Memphis
BYU > Wyoming
Colorado State > Idaho
Navy > Louisiana Tech
Eastern Michigan > Old Dominion
Troy > Ohio
Middle Tennessee > Hawaii
Mississippi State > Miami (OH)
Boston College > Maryland
NC State > Vanderbilt
Army > North Texas
Temple > Wake Forest
Boise State > Baylor
Washington State > Minnesota
Pittsburgh > Northwestern
Utah > Indiana
West Virginia > Miami (FL)
Texas A&M > Kansas State
South Florida > South Carolina
Virginia Tech > Arkansas
Colorado > Oklahoma State
Nebraska > Tennessee
Air Force > South Alabama
Stanford > North Carolina
Georgia > TCU Kentucky > Georgia Tech
Louisville > LSU
Iowa > Florida
Wisconsin > Western Michigan
Michigan > Florida State
Oklahoma > Auburn
USC > Penn State
Ohio State > Clemson
Alabama > Washington
Overall Record: 34-11 (75.5%)
Read my original article; Predicting the 2016-17 College Football Playoff Teams.
No. 1 Alabama (13-0, 8-0)
No. 2 Florida State (9-3, 5-3)
No. 3 Ohio State (11-1, 8-1)
No. 4 Clemson (12-1, 7-1)
Preseason CFP Picks:
Heisman Standings:
1. Deshaun Watson (Clemson QB) -- 3,914 Yards, 30 TDs.
2. Lamar Jackson (Louisville QB) -- 3,390 Yards, 30 TDs.
3. Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma QB) -- 3,669 Yards, 38 TDs.
4. Jabrill Peppers (Michigan LB) -- 67 Tackles, 4.0 Sacks.
5. Dede Westbrook (Oklahoma WR) -- 1,465 Yards, 16 TDs.
Heisman Update: No. 1 and No. 2 flip-flopped as Deshaun Watson ascended to the top ranking ahead of Saturday's Heisman Trophy announcement on ESPN at 8:00 p.m. Watson threw for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns in the ACC championship game against Virginia Tech as Lamar Jackson sat at home. Baker Mayfield moved up to spots to No. 3 after a 288 yard, 3 touchdown performance against Oklahoma State in the de facto Big 12 championship game. Jabrill Peppers moved back into the discussion after having an extremely versatile season for the Wolverines. Lastly, Dede Westbrook caught 111 yards worth of passes and 1 touchdown from Mayfield to move into the No. 5 spot.
Photo Credit: Campus Insiders.
