CFB: Championship Week Preview
Rivalry Week lived up to the hype as No. 1 Alabama defeated No. 14 Auburn, No. 2 Ohio State beat No. 3 Michigan in double-overtime, No. 4 Clemson destroyed South Carolina, and No. 5 Washington ran over No. 22 Washington State.
Championship Week is finally here, and that means we are nearing Selection Sunday. Each Power 5 Conference has a ranked-vs.-ranked matchup for all of the marbles, and the Group of 5 title games are sneaky good. Blake Stoll and I will release our last rankings before the CFP field is selected, answer a handful of questions, and I'll provide my game predictions and current Heisman standings.
Firstly, here is the latest CFP Committee rankings:
Current CFP Field:
No. 1 Alabama (12-0, 8-0)
- Eight top-25 wins.
- 20th ranked offense.
- 1st ranked defense.
- Best wins: USC, Auburn, and LSU.
- Loss(es): none.
No. 2 Ohio State (11-1, 8-1)
- Four top-25 wins.
- 21st ranked offense.
- 6th ranked defense.
- Best wins: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma.
- Loss(es): at Penn State.
No. 3 Clemson (11-1, 7-1)
- Two top-25 wins.
- 9th ranked offense.
- 9th ranked defense.
- Best wins: Florida State, Louisville, and Auburn.
- Loss(es): vs. Pittsburgh.
No. 4 Washington (11-1, 8-1)
- Three top-25 wins.
- 18th ranked offense.
- 17th ranked defense.
- Best wins: Stanford, Utah, and Washington State.
- Loss(es): vs. USC.
Outside, Looking In:
No. 5 Michigan (10-2, 7-2)
- One top-25 win.
- 47th best offense.
- 2nd best defense.
- Best wins: Wisconsin, Penn State, and Colorado.
- Loss(es): at Iowa, at Ohio State.
No. 6 Wisconsin (10-2, 7-2)
- Three top-25 wins.
- 85th best offense.
- 7th best defense.
- Best wins: LSU, Nebraska, and Iowa.
- Loss(es): at Michigan, vs. Ohio State.
Others With A Chance:
No. 7 Penn State (10-2, 8-1)
- One top-25 win.
- 55th best offense.
- 22nd best defense.
- Best wins: Ohio State, Iowa, and Minnesota.
- Loss(es): at Pittsburgh, at Michigan.
No. 8 Colorado (10-2, 8-1)
- Two top-25 wins.
- 26th best offense.
- 13th best defense.
- Best wins: Stanford, Utah, and Washington State.
- Loss(es): at Michigan, at USC.
NY6 Bowls If The Season Ended Today:
Peach (CFP): No. 1 Alabama (12-0) vs. No. 4 Washington (11-1)
Fiesta (CFP): No. 2 Ohio State (11-1) vs. No. 3 Clemson (11-1)
Rose: No. 5 Michigan (10-2) vs. No. 8 Colorado (10-2)
Sugar: No. 9 Oklahoma (9-2) vs. No. 14 Auburn (8-4)
Orange: No. 6 Wisconsin (10-2) vs. No. 12 Florida State (9-3)
Cotton: No. 7 Penn State (10-2) vs. No. 17 Western Michigan (12-0)
Composite Rankings:
1. Alabama (12-0)
2. Ohio State (11-1)
3. Clemson (11-1)
4. Washington (11-1)
5. Michigan (10-2)
6. Wisconsin (10-2)
7. Penn State (10-2)
8. Colorado (10-2)
9. Oklahoma (9-2)
10. Oklahoma State (9-2)
11. USC (9-3)
12. Florida State (9-3)
13. Auburn (8-4)
14. Western Michigan (12-0)
15. Stanford (9-3)
16. Louisville (9-3)
17. Virginia Tech (9-3)
18. West Virginia (9-2)
19. Florida (9-3)
20. Navy (9-2)
21. LSU (8-4)
22. Boise State (10-2)
23. Houston (9-3)
24. Nebraska (9-3)
25. Pittsburgh (8-4)
Just Missed the Cut:
26. Utah (8-4)
27. Tennessee (8-4)
28. Iowa (8-4)
29. Miami (FL) (8-4)
30. Kansas State (7-4)
Can Deshaun Watson catch Lamar Jackson in the Heisman race, in the ACC title game?
Post: I very well think he can. In a Heisman race that seemed over in September and October, has tightened up a bit because of back-to-back poor performances by Louisville's Lamar Jackson (3,390 yards, 30 touchdowns), both of which came in losses to non-conference opponents. Jackson is still likely to be crowned king of college football, but Deshaun Watson (3,626 yards, 34 touchdowns) has one last chance to steal the trophy, against No. 17 Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game. This is as good of an opportunity as Watson will get because he will have the stage to himself, facing a ranked opponent, with a high win probability (83.9 percent chance to win according to ESPN FPI). If the Tigers' offense (40.0 points, 508.7 yards per game) can continue to scorch secondaries, Watson could be sitting pretty in New York. Mike Williams (1,114 yards, 10 touchdowns), No. 3 Clemson's best wide receiver, will play a huge role in this game and if his quarterback can catch Jackson.
Stoll: Lamar Jackson has been the Heisman front runner all season long, although he’s been a little sloppy the last couple of weeks. Deshaun Watson has been second or third in the Heisman race for most of the season and has only improved. Before slipping up, Jackson looked like he would win unanimously but as of late he is opening the door. Right now, it is only cracked, but it isn’t shut. I think Deshaun Watson has a chance to catch him if and only if he has a near perfect game in the ACC title game against No. 17 Virginia Tech.
Will No. 9 Oklahoma win the Big 12 championship for the second consecutive season?
Post: Definitely. For sure. Yes. I have no doubt in my mind that No. 9 Oklahoma is the best team in the Big 12, and with a victory over their rival, No. 10 Oklahoma State, they will clinch the conference for the second year in a row. Last season, the Sooners won on the road against the Cowboys, but this season, the two teams will square off in Norman, Okla. Baker Mayfield (3,381 yards, 35 touchdowns) and Joe Mixon (1,084 yards, 7 touchdowns) are just too fast, powerful, and talented to lose this game. Mason Rudolph (3,591 yards, 25 touchdowns) has had his best season by a wide margin but it just won't be enough. Oklahoma's offense (45.3 points per game) will be too much for Oklahoma State's defense (allows 27.2 points per game) to handle; Sooners win Bedlam and the Big 12 by double-digits.
Stoll: The Big 12 does not have an official title game, but this year the winner of No. 10 Oklahoma State vs No. 9 Oklahoma will walk away conference champions. Both teams come into the game 9-2, Oklahoma undefeated in conference play and the Cowboys lost to Baylor. I believe that Oklahoma is truly the better team. They have two Heisman candidates in QB Baker Mayfield and WR Dede Westbrook. The only way I see Oklahoma State winning the game is shutting down the passing game for the Sooners.
Who wins the Big Ten title game; No. 7 Penn State or No. 6 Wisconsin?
Post: No. 6 Wisconsin. I think No. 7 Penn State is a very good team, and has done enough to deserve their place in the CFP top-10 and the Big Ten title game, but I still believe they are the fourth best team in the conference and benefitted from avoiding Nebraska and Wisconsin in the regular season. Therefore, I see the Badgers winning the conference and keeping their playoff hopes alive. Corey Clement (1,140 yards, 13 touchdowns) vs. Saquon Barkley (1,219 yards, 15 touchdowns) is one of the best running back matchups we will see, but it won't make or break who wins; the defenses will. Wisconsin (allows 13.7 points, 292.0 yards per game) is one of the best defensive units in the country, and Penn State (allows 22.8 points, 346.8 yards per game) is not too far behind. I just trust Wisconsin's running game (+22.8 rushing yards per game compared to Penn State) and defense more.
Stoll: I think No.6 Wisconsin takes this one. Both teams have two losses, Wisconsin to No. 5 Michigan and No. 2 Ohio State, and Penn State to No. 5 Michigan and No. 25 Pittsburgh. I think the Badgers will take this one because they have a stronger defense (allows 292.0 yards per game). Corey Clement will also play a big role on the ground.
Which PAC-12 team makes one final statement and does it get them into the CFP?
Post: No. 4 Washington wins and yes, they will be in the College Football Playoff. I still think the Huskies' spot in the Final Four is questionable because of their poor non-conference schedule (127th out of 128 FBS teams), but that is a discussion for another day. As for this game, Jake Browning (3,162 yards, 40 touchdowns) and Myles Gaskin (1,180 yards, 10 touchdowns) will be too much for Sefo Liufau (2,150 yards, 11 touchdowns) and Co. to contain. Washington (scores 44.8, allows 17.8 points per game) scores more and allows less than No. 8 Colorado (scores 34.8, allows 18.8 points per game), a formula which is still undefeated for me this season.
Stoll: The PAC-12 comes down to No. 8 Colorado vs. No. 4 Washington. Washington began the season strong and like Clemson, seemed to let up as of late. Colorado is the opposite, getting beat pretty soundly by Michigan in week three then USC later on, but they are coming off a six-game win streak and two straight ranked-wins in Washington State and Utah. Both teams have one last chance to prove that they are for real and this game is the true test. I am going with Colorado in this matchup. We will have a solid quarterback battle with Sefo Liufau and Jake Browning. The Buffs have the edge in the ground game with Phillip Lindsey. Colorado wins by a field goal.
Is there any chance No. 19 Florida can upset No. 1 Alabama in the SEC championship game?
Post: Hell no. Nick Saban's team is not going to lose to an opponent that struggles getting the ball into the endzone. No. 19 Florida's offense (+7.5 point differential) is awful and No. 1 Alabama (+28.0 point differential) is the best defensive team in the nation, and a darn good offensive team. Jalen Hurts (2,454 yards, 21 touchdowns) has been great all season and Ardarius Stewart (810 yards, 8 touchdowns) has been a key component in the offense lately. I don't see any way Florida can win this game, but the only way the Gators even keep it close is if Jordan Scarlett (778 yards, 6 touchdowns) can play like he did against LSU and South Carolina. Alabama wins by double digits and captures the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
Stoll: No.
Championship Week Predictions:
Ohio 17, No. 14 Western Michigan 35.
No. 8 Colorado 20, No. 4 Washington 28.
Louisiana Tech 20, Western Kentucky 34.
Temple 23, No. 20 Navy 24.
No. 10 Oklahoma State 27, No. 9 Oklahoma 41.
Louisiana 28, UL-Monroe 21.
No. 19 Florida 6, No. 1 Alabama 30.
San Diego State 35, Wyoming 30.
No. 17 Virginia Tech 16, No. 3 Clemson 27.
No. 7 Penn State 18, No. 6 Wisconsin 23.
Week 13 Record: 8-2.
Overall Record: 98-32.
Read my original article; Predicting the 2016-17 College Football Playoff Teams.
No. 1 Alabama (12-0) (8-0)
No. 2 Florida State (9-3) (5-3)
No. 3 Ohio State (11-1) (8-1)
No. 4 Clemson (11-1) (7-1)
Preseason CFP Picks:
Heisman Standings:
1. Lamar Jackson (Louisville QB) -- 3,390 Yards, 30 TDs.
2. Deshaun Watson (Clemson QB) -- 3,626 Yards, 34 TDs.
3. D'Onta Foreman (Texas RB) -- 2,028 Yards, 15 TDs.
4. Dalvin Cook (Florida State RB) -- 1,620 Yards, 18 TDs.
5. Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma QB) -- 3,381 Yards, 35 TDs.
Heisman Update: No. 1 Lamar Jackson stays at the top of the rankings but he has no one to blame but himself if the trophy is not awarded to him. He and his 9-3 Louisville Cardinals have now lost back-to-back games to Houston and Kentucky, respectively, and in the latter; he struggled with 281 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 turnovers. No. 2 Deshaun Watson is all of a sudden in a great spot to catch his ACC rival, after throwing for 347 yards and 6 (!) touchdowns against South Carolina. No. 3 D'Onta Foreman remains in his spot even though his Texas Longhorns lost (again) and will not be in a bowl game. Foreman ran for 163 yards against TCU, getting over the incredible 2,000-yard mark. No. 4 Dalvin Cook is new to the rankings, as he has been racking up 100+ yard games over the last two months, rushing for 153 yards and 1 touchdown against one of the best defenses (Florida) in the country. No. 5 Baker Mayfield slides back a spot just because his team was idle but he has a big chance to give us one last impression on Championship Weekend against Oklahoma State in the de facto Big 12 title game. Jalen Hurts, J.T. Barrett, Jake Browning, Jabrill Peppers, and Dede Westbrook are others on the hinge of being invited to New York City, as well.
Photo Credit: NPR.org.
