CFB: Playoff Scenarios
The College Football Playoff Committee is just a few weeks away from being dealt their most difficult hand yet; In 2014, there were three obvious teams (Alabama, Florida State, and Oregon) and a decision between Baylor, Ohio State, and TCU, a choice that wasn't very hard to make, and in 2015, all four teams (Alabama, Clemson, Michigan State, and Oklahoma) were simple selections that we all anticipated.
However, 2016 is a completely different story. With just two weeks left in the 13-week regular season, before championship week, we have 12(!) teams that still have a chance at crashing the third annual College Football Playoff. I will breakdown what each of those teams need to do and need to have happen, in order for them to clinch a spot in the Final Four.
Current CFP Field:
1. Alabama (10-0, 7-0)
2. Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)
3. Michigan (9-1, 6-1)
4. Clemson (9-1, 6-1)
Outside, Looking In:
5. Louisville (9-1, 7-1)
6. Washington (9-1, 6-1)
7. Wisconsin (8-2, 5-2)
8. Penn State (8-2, 5-2)
Others With A Chance:
9. Oklahoma (8-2, 7-0)
10. Colorado (8-2, 6-1)
11. Oklahoma State (8-2, 6-1)
12. Utah (8-2, 6-2)
Alabama: Nothing, pretty much. Well, they need to win two of the next three games which sounds like a cakewalk for a Crimson Tide team that has won 22 consecutive games. Nick Saban's team has a one-game cushion, where they can lose to Auburn or Tennessee in the SEC title game, and still make the playoff. Something tells me that Saban, Jalen Hurts, and Co. aren't going to let up though. Alabama is in perfect position to make their third straight CFP, as long as they continue what they have been doing.
Ohio State: Beat Michigan State. Beat Michigan. There is a very small chance that the Buckeyes are going to win the Big Ten championship game and that's fine. As long as this team takes care of business over the next two weeks, their resume will be too strong to ignore just because a conference championship is lacking. Even with wins over Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Nebraska, the loss at Penn State will likely keep the Bucks from going to Indianapolis, but another ranked win against Michigan would be enough to make the Playoff for the second time.
Michigan: Same thing as Ohio State. Win at home vs. Indiana. Win on the road vs. Ohio State. The only thing that differs from the Buckeyes in Michigan's scenario is if the Wolverines do sweep their next two opponents, they will be in the Big Ten title game, due to a home victory against Penn State. If Michigan beats Indiana and Ohio State but loses to Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game, they would likely still make the Playoff, but just to make sure; Michigan needs to win-out.
Clemson: Win. Win. Win. For Clemson, they do not have the wiggle room that the teams ahead of them do. There is no exception to the Tigers' formula to return to the College Football Playoff. They must defeat Wake Forest this weekend, South Carolina on rivalry weekend, and Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. The reason they must win-out is because Louisville is nipping at their heels and are waiting for a slip-up.
Louisville: This is where the chaos begins in order for teams to make the Playoff. Louisville does not need a lot of help, but they do need some. First off, the Cardinals must take care of Houston and Kentucky in emphatic fashion. Since a hot start, Louisville has struggled against lower tier ACC teams in Duke, Virginia, and Wake Forest, and any more poor play will keep them out of the Final Four. Louisville also needs Clemson to lose in front of them. Even with the loser of Michigan vs. Ohio State dropping back, I don't see a scenario where U of L makes the field unless Clemson loses.
Washington: The Huskies were the darlings of the country until their Saturday loss against USC, and that is likely to keep them out of the College Football Playoff. If Washington wins-out over Arizona State, Washington State, and either Colorado, USC, or Utah in the PAC-12 championship game then they would have a good chance of hopping Louisville, but the Huskies would still need to hope that one of the three Big Ten teams around them would not clinch the spot instead.
Wisconsin: After being unranked preseason, the Badgers have had a great 2016-17 season, which could end in the Final Four. First off, they have the best two losses any team could have (at Michigan 14-7 and against Ohio State in overtime). Secondly, they would have four big time wins over LSU, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Penn State if they were to win-out. Lastly, their Big Ten conference championship would look more impressive than the ACC, Big 12, and PAC-12. As long as Wisconsin wins out, I think they will sneak into the bottom seed.
Penn State: Very similar situation to the Badgers. The Nittany Lions need to win at Rutgers this week and then take down Michigan State on Senior Day. If Penn State is able to do that, they will be in prime position to clinch the Big Ten title, but they would need help from the Buckeyes, in beating Michigan. Penn State over Rutgers, Penn State over Michigan State, and Ohio State over Michigan are all extremely possible. If those three games were to go James Franklin's way, the Nittany Lions would have the beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title to have a chance at the Playoff. If all of that happens, they would need one of Clemson, Louisville, or Washington to lose.
Oklahoma: This is where the hail mary's start coming in. Oklahoma was able to make it to the CFP last year even with a loss to lowly Texas, but two losses might be too big of a hole to climb out of this year. Oklahoma would need to beat West Virginia and Oklahoma State over the next three weeks, claiming the Big 12 title, with no conference championship game. They would also need three teams out of Clemson, Louisville, Washington, Wisconsin, and Penn State to lose just to have a shot in the dark.
Colorado: The PAC-12 is one of the more confusing conferences because at this point, most divisions are set to be clinched and the conference championship games are being decided between 2-4 teams. However, the PAC-12 has five legitimate teams that could win the conference. Colorado is one of those five. If the Buffaloes beat Washington State and Utah, both games at home, over the next two weeks, they will be in the title game. That would be against either Washington or Washington State. If the Buffs were to win-out, they would be ranked roughly seventh in my mind. Which means they would need three teams to lose in front of them, likely Clemson, Louisville, and Penn State, and maybe Oklahoma. The Buffs are also rooting for Michigan to continue winning which would 1) make their first loss look even better and 2) eliminate Penn State and possibly Wisconsin. Even from being so far down, Colorado has a shot if they take care of business and so do the Wolverines.
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys are in the same exact boat as their in-state rival Sooners. If Oklahoma State can finish the regular season 10-2, closing out with victories over TCU and Oklahoma then they will be crowned the Big 12 champions. I'm not sure how much weight that carries, but it is something. Mike Gundy and crew need to win-out and have four teams out of Clemson, Louisville, Washington, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Colorado to lose to have an opportunity.
Utah: Each PAC-12 team is in virtually the same scenario, with just a less likely chance as we work our way down the rankings. If the Utes win-out, they would be taking out Oregon and Colorado, en route to the PAC-12 title game where they would meet either Washington and Washington State. If the Utes win their three possible games remaining, there would still need the Committee to view them favorably compared to Oklahoma and Louisville, and then hope for extreme chaos in the Big Ten including losses from three of the four; Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin. The Utes have the lowest chance of the 12 teams, but there is a slim opening for them to sneak into the fourth seed.
Photo Credit: Big Ten Network.
