CFB: New Year's Six Predictions
We are a few days past Week 6, which means half of the regular season is in the rearview mirror, and it is time to release some 'New Year's Six Predictions,' regarding the College Football Playoff teams that will meet in the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl, and the matchups that will face off in the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl, in the other four NY6 games.
For the sake of this argument; I unfortunately have to remove my original prediction of Florida State entering the College Football Playoff as the No. 2 team because of their 4-2 record (losses to No. 10 Louisville and North Carolina).
There is a slim-chance that the 'Noles make a late run to the CFP because of their recent big win over No. 10 Miami (FL) and loaded schedule in the last couple of months (vs. No. 3 Clemson, vs. No. 18 Florida) but I will still insert No. 5 Washington into these predictions.
Read my original full article; 2016 College Football Playoff Predictions.
CFP/Peach Bowl: No. 1 Alabama (6-0, 3-0) vs. No. 3 Clemson (6-0, 3-0): No. 1 Crimson Tide are rolling through the first six weeks of the season and I don't see them slowing down anytime soon. No. 1 Alabama is led by freshman dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts (1,242 yards, 9 touchdowns) and star wideout Calvin Ridley (412 yards, 4 touchdowns) on offense. The defense (allows 15.8 points and 69.2 rushing yards per game) is, well, as usual one of the best in the country.
It is proven to be very hard for teams to run the table in this day and age so I am expecting a loss from Alabama at some point, which could come against No. 9 Tennessee, No. 6 Texas A&M, LSU, No. 23 Auburn, or in the SEC title game. However, it would not utterly shock me to see Alabama go unbeaten.
No. 3 Clemson is undefeated so far as well, but I am more comfortable predicting a loss for the Tigers. Deshaun Watson (1,568 yards, 18 touchdowns) is one of the top three players in the nation, and has a plethora of weapons at his disposal in Wayne Gallman (475 yards, 5 touchdowns), Mike Williams (432 yards, 3 touchdowns), and Ray Ray McCloud (284 yards, 2 touchdowns). The Tigers also boast one of the top-10 defenses (allows 15.0 points per game) in the nation.
I expect Clemson to lose against NC State, No. 14 Florida State, or their opponent in the ACC championship game, but still be able to find themselves in the CFP for the second season in a row.
CFP/Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State (5-0, 2-0) vs. No. 5 Washington (6-0, 3-0): No. 2 Buckeyes are my title favorite right now because of stud signal-caller J.T. Barrett (981 yards, 15 touchdowns), as well as a dominant group of running backs (Mike Webber: 566 yards, Curtis Samuel: 410 yards), and a great defense (allows 10.8 points per game and has nine ints.).
Ohio State has had a pretty easy route to 6-0, excluding the win at No. 14 Oklahoma, but the schedule will kick up in Week 7, starting with No. 8 Wisconsin. The Bucks will also clash with No. 10 Nebraska and No. 4 Michigan before the season comes to an end, as well as a potential Big Ten title game.
No. 5 Washington has been one of the most pleasant surprises in 2016, shooting all the way up to No. 5 in the AP Top 25. The Huskies allocate a rising star behind center in Jake Browning (1,418 yards, 23 touchdowns) and Myles Gaskin (599 yards, 5 touchdowns), who create one of the most explosive offenses in the Pac-12.
Chris Petersen has done a masterful job in a few short seasons in Seattle, and can lead this team to the College Football Playoff. The Huskies' biggest hurdles will be at No. 21 Utah, California, USC, and Washington State.
Orange Bowl: No. 7 Louisville (4-1, 2-1) vs. No. 9 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1): No. 7 Louisville, despite their loss at No. 3 Clemson, has had a great start to the 2016-17 campaign, led by Heisman frontrunner Lamar Jackson (1,625 yards, 14 touchdowns). The Cardinals as a whole have one of the best offenses (58.0 points and 659.2 yards per game) in the nation.
Even though Jackson is the main attraction for Louisville, their team is extremely balanced (350.0 passing and 309.2 rushing yards per game). Louisville will likely have to run the table to have a shot at this spot, and their schedule sets up for it. Road games at Boston College and No. 13 Houston are the only true tests remaining. The Cardinals should be able to finish the season 10-2 at worst.
No. 9 Tennessee suffered their first lost last weekend, in a Week 6 matchup at No. 8 Texas A&M. Veterans Joshua Dobbs (1,433 yards, 14 touchdowns) and Jalen Hurd (407 yards, 2 touchdowns) are the catalysts for the Volunteers who lean heavily on their two superstars (Dobbs/Hurd combine for 70.6 percent of total offense).
The Volunteers' tough stretch in the schedule is nearly past, as they took on three straight ranked opponents (Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M), and have a meeting with No. 1 Alabama in Week 7. After the Crimson Tide game, a road game at South Carolina is the only other potential loss in my opinion.
Cotton Bowl: No. 11 Baylor (5-0, 2-0) vs. No. 13 Houston (5-1, 2-1): No. 11 Baylor has been in the news for all of the wrong reasons for the past several months, so what is happening on the field, is being slightly overlooked. The Bears' offense (42.6 points and 568.4 yards per game) is as potent as ever, hoisting a dynamic duo in Seth Russell (1,326 yards, 14 touchdowns) and Shock Linwood (454 yards, 1 touchdown).
The only thing that is going to keep Baylor from this game is going to be a tough stretch in the schedule, where they travel to Texas, No. 19 Oklahoma, and No. 20 West Virginia in a six week span. If Baylor can go 10-2 or 11-1, they will be selected for their second Cotton Bowl in the last three seasons.
No. 13 Houston is coming off of their first loss at Navy, which will likely ruin their shot at crashing the third annual College Football Playoff. However, there is still a lot to play for. The Cougars and No. 16 Boise State are the top choices for a Group of Five selection, and I expect Houston to edge out the Broncos.
Houston is led by Greg Ward Jr. (1,684 yards, 11 touchdowns) who creates an explosive offense (43.5 points per game). 5-Star recruit Ed Oliver leads on the defensive (allows 17.0 points per game) side of the ball. The Cougars' toughest games are hosting No. 7 Louisville on November 17 and traveling to Memphis in Week 13.
Rose Bowl: No. 4 Michigan (6-0, 3-0) vs. 21 Utah (5-1, 2-1): No. 4 Wolverines have looked great so far this season but have only been truly tested once, in a 14-7 victory over No. 8 Wisconsin. No. 4 Michigan puts forth one of the most complete teams in the country, hoisting playmakers such as Wilton Speight (1,194 yards, 11 touchdowns), Amara Darboh (400 yards, 5 touchdowns), and Heisman candidate Jabrill Peppers (33 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 98 yards, 2 touchdowns).
I originally expected Michigan State and Iowa to be tough road games, but both the Spartans and Hawkeyes have struggled to score, and going up against a vaunted U of M defense (allows 10.3 points and 212.8 yards per game) is only going to worsen that problem.
No. 21 Utah is sitting at 5-1, but is the leader in the Pac-12 South. If the Utes can go 10-2 or 9-3 and make it to the Pac-12 championship game against No. 5 Washington, this Rose Bowl slot will be theirs for the taking. Utah has a very capable dual-threat quarterback of their own with Troy Williams (1,504 yards, 7 touchdowns).
The Utes have a balanced offense (28.0 points and 434.7 yards per game) that can hang with nearly anyone. Utah's toughest games are coming quickly, as they have showdowns with UCLA, No. 5 Washington, and Colorado looming.
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Texas A&M (6-0, 4-0) vs. No. 19 Oklahoma (3-2, 2-0): No. 6 Texas A&M started the season unranked, but has since been arguably the most dominant team in the SEC. The Aggies topped No. 16 UCLA in Week 1, steamrolled through Auburn and No. 17 Arkansas in Week 4 and Week 5, and pulled off a double-overtime thriller against No. 9 Tennessee in Week 6. A&M's quarterback Trevor Knight (1,500 yards, 9 touchdowns) has been solid, which is exactly what Kevin Sumlin's squad needed.
Knight's favorite target, Josh Reynolds (488 yards, 4 touchdowns), is also having quite the season. Texas A&M's toughest remaining games are against No. 1 Alabama, No. 12 Ole Miss, and LSU. The Ole Miss-Texas A&M game will likely decide who earns the Sugar Bowl slot.
No. 19 Oklahoma started the season on a rough note with losses to No. 15 Houston and No. 3 Ohio State, before defeating No. 21 TCU and arch-rival Texas. Even with a 3-2 record, the Sooners have a great shot to win out.
Baker Mayfield (1,457 yards, 12 touchdowns) runs the show in Norman, backed up by All-Big 12 candidates Samaje Perine (461 yards, 6 touchdowns) and Dede Westbrook (544 yards, 5 touchdowns). If Oklahoma does win out, they must go through Texas Tech, No. 11 Baylor, and No. 20 West Virginia.
Photo Credit: CampusInsiders.com.