NBA: The Process Has Paid Off
The Philadelphia 76ers (52-30) shocked the basketball world by claiming the third seed from the reigning Eastern Conference champions in the Cleveland Cavaliers to take on the sixth seeded Miami Heat (44-38) this Saturday night at 8pm on ESPN at the Wells Fargo Arena. Stylistically these two teams couldn’t be any more different with Miami playing a more grind-it-out brand of basketball while Philly looks to run and get out on the break. The two teams split their regular season series going 2-2, respectively that saw both teams winning on their home floors.
The Sixers have a lot of momentum heading into the postseason having won 16 straight games, which may have some overestimating their capabilities, but Miami has been inconsistent throughout much of the regular season. The Heat literally had a stretch of games where’d they win two and lose one, which pretty much sums up the way Miami has faired the last couple of seasons but have made amends by returning to the postseason after finishing 9th in their conference last year. A 16-game win streak isn't anything to scoff at but Philly was just in a similar predicament in early February sitting at a pedestrian 25-25.
Since then, they have gone 27-5 and even continued to win without The Process himself, Joel Embiid, who has been out since March 28th with an orbital fracture suffered by his own teammate during a miscommunication. If Embiid misses a significant number of games this series may go on longer than it should. First things first: Philly has two of the most talented players in the league in Ben Simmons and Embiid with a third trying to find his way into that category in Markelle Fultz, but on the other end you have Erik Spoelstra, who is undoubtedly one of the best coaches today who gets the most out of his roster.
Matchups tend to favor teams with the most talent but Coach Spo will try his best to run schemes to get the ball out of Simmons hands early or force him to shoot and slow the game to a grinding halt for his Heat to emerge victorious. That's where Fultz could potentially play a key role off the bench as a facilitator on offense. The number one draft pick has finally returned from his weird yet mysterious muscle/shoulder injury and has looked every bit of a legit NBA guard, despite missing majority of the season. Fultz's return started off strong, flaked out for a few games for him to only finish the season on a strong note.
He recorded a Rajon Rondo-esque triple double against Milwaukee. Miami will surely look to stay at home on shooters like J.J. Redick and Robert Covington, and will try build a wall to stop deep drives from Simmons to the paint which will open up the mid range game where Fultz has shown to be proficient. Miami's two biggest flaws is that statistically they lack consistent scoring and three-point shooting. Although Miami has a deep roster with nine players scoring in double figures they rank 22nd in offensive rating. First time All-Star Goran Dragic is the only player on the roster to average at least 15 points at 17.4 points per game.
Dion Waiters coming in a distant second at 14.3 points per game. Then there’s sharpshooter Wayne Ellington who is by far Miami’s most efficient from deep at 39.2 percent, which may not help their chances since Philly is ranked second in the league at defending the long ball holding teams to only 34.2 percent from beyond the arc. Sure, Miami will get as many stops as possible since the Sixers are dead last in turnovers (16.5) but they may not be able to come up with enough scoring opportunities to win, especially in the clutch where Philly has shined as of late.
According to data obtained from NBA.com the Sixers have been phenomenal in late game situations. They have posted an absurd offensive rating of 133.6 in the fourth quarter with at least a five point differential with five minutes to go from March 1st to the end of the season going 7-2. For comparison, the Heat are 5-5 in close contests in that same time frame, yielding an offensive rating of 103.5, largely due to their lack of players who can go get a bucket on a whim and poor shooting. Defensively Miami may find some success early with Embiid set to miss at least Game 1 of the playoffs.
Without his defensive presence and his ability to switch on to smaller guards the Heat will look to attack the paint often. Goran Dragic makes his living driving to the lane and converting at a high clip shooting 63 percent on the season but blowing by Covington or Simmons won’t be so easy. Simmons is a 6’10, 250 point guard who is a matchup nightmare for opposing guards. Pick and roll should be Miami’s bread and butter to get Simmons and Covington off ball where Dragic will look to for seams to drop the ball inside to Hassan Whiteside. Also Dwyane Wade will look to score whenever possible and taking on a big facilitator role.
The Sixers are capable of putting teams away early and have shown consistently throughout the season as being the aggressor however, the young group tends to fall asleep after big leads. Miami will try to take advantage of their lack of experience but the Sixers have enough weapons to turn the tide quickly. Miami's Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson will try to make things tough as they are two of the grittiest defenders in the league. Due to Embiid’s injury and the Sixers inability to stay aggressive as they should, Miami may escape with a game or two, depending on which Philadelphia team shows up.
Philly should win in convincing fashion but Spoelstra will have his team ready for all outcomes and will look to negate Simmons as much as possible. Miami’s depth will keep Philly on their toes especially if they can play defense the way they want to but the Sixers aren’t slouches by any means. With their ability to switch everything and high energy players like Richaun Holmes, Philly should be able to weather any storm. Not only will they look to run as often as possible, they have formidable shooters and move the ball very well. I have the series being a hard fought, energetic slugfest with Philly moving on, winning 4-2.
Photo Credit: CBS Sports.
