CFB: Week 12 Preview
Week 11 was one of the best weekends of the entire year, consisting of seven ranked-vs.-ranked matchups, which produced No. 24 Stanford upsetting No. 9 Washington, No. 10 Auburn shocking No. 2 Georgia, No. 13 Oklahoma State outscoring No. 22 Iowa State, No. 7 Miami put an absolute beatdown on No. 3 Notre Dame, and the same could be said for No. 11 Ohio State against No. 12 Michigan State. A ton of CFP ramifications came out of this weekend as Washington, Notre Dame, and Michigan State were effectively eliminated.
Week 11 slips a little bit, as we only have three ranked-vs.-ranked matchups, after having two consecutive weeks with seven of them. But, then again, college football chaos always seems to strike when we don't see it coming. With that said, there are a couple of top heavy games on the docket like No. 5 Wisconsin hosting No. 17 Michigan looking to stay unbeaten, and No. 24 Kentucky facing No. 7 Georgia, who is trying to get back on track. Our CFB Staff - Charles Post, Chase Zayac, and Chinedum Wejinya - will preview this week.
*Maximum of 100 Points.*
Top-25 Rankings:
1. Alabama (10-0, 7-0) - 100 Pts.
2. Miami (10-0, 7-0) - 96 Pts.
3. Oklahoma (9-1, 6-1) - 94 Pts.
4. Clemson (9-1, 6-1) - 92 Pts.
5. Wisconsin (10-0, 7-0) - 87 Pts.
6. Auburn (8-2, 6-1) - 84 Pts.
7. Georgia (9-1, 6-1) - 83 Pts.
8. Ohio State (8-2, 6-1) - 76 Pts.
9. Notre Dame (8-2, 4-1) - 76 Pts.
10. Oklahoma State (8-2, 5-2) - 73 Pts.
11. TCU (8-2, 5-2) - 72 Pts.
12. USC (9-2, 6-1) - 66 Pts.
13. Penn State (8-2, 5-2) - 64 Pts.
14. Central Florida (9-0, 7-0) - 59 Pts.
15. Washington State (9-2, 6-2) - 55 Pts.
16. Stanford (7-3, 6-2) - 49 Pts.
17. Michigan (8-2, 5-2) - 47 Pts.
18. Washington (8-2, 5-2) - 46 Pts.
19. NC State (7-3, 5-1) - 41 Pts.
20. Michigan State (7-3, 5-2) - 41 Pts.
21. West Virginia (7-3, 5-2) - 32 Pts.
22. Arizona (7-3, 5-2) - 30 Pts.
23. South Florida (9-1, 5-1) - 25 Pts.
24. Kentucky (7-3, 5-3) - 11 Pts.
25. Navy (6-3, 4-3) - 10 Pts.
Just Missed the Cut:
26. LSU (7-3, 4-2) - 9 Pts.
27. Iowa State (6-4, 4-3) - 8 Pts.
28. San Diego State (8-2, 5-2) - 7 Pts.
29. Wake Forest (6-4, 3-3) - 3 Pts.
30. Iowa (6-4, 3-4) - 2 Pts.
Trending Upward: No. 16 Stanford (+8) pulled off a big time upset over No. 18 Washington, that kept the Cardinal in contention for the Pac-12 title, as long as they are able to defeat California this week. Bryce Love returned to form against the Huskies for 166 yards and three scores, including the clincher. Stanford finishes the year with facing two of their rivals in a row, taking on the Golden Bears in a few days and then ending the season with a showdown against No. 9 Notre Dame. If Stanford goes 2-0, and then wins the Pac-12 title, they could be in line for a Fiesta Bowl berth. Other teams that made statements this past weekend were No. 2 Miami (+5) following their stomping of the Fighting Irish, as well as No. 6 Auburn (+4) and No. 8 Ohio State (+3). Those three teams face Virginia, UL-Monroe, and Illinois, respectively, this coming Saturday.
Trending Downward: No. 20 Michigan State (-8) has been on a whirlwind over the last three weeks as they've gone from No. 24 to No. 12 and now to No. 20 following a loss to Northwestern, a win over No. 13 Penn State, and then a blowout loss to No. 8 Ohio State. The Spartans are clearly a talented team with a hard-working defense, but they aren't the best team in the Big Ten East, and that's obvious now. However, Michigan State should finish the year a much improved and well respected 9-3 record, with games against Maryland and Rutgers up next. A few others programs that fell down our rankings following losses are No. 18 Washington (-9) after their second loss to Stanford, No. 9 Notre Dame (-6) after their second loss to Miami, and No. 7 Georgia (-5) after their first loss to Auburn.
Charles Post:
Tulsa @ No. 23 South Florida
No. 17 Michigan @ No. 5 Wisconsin
No. 24 Kentucky @ No. 7 Georgia
UCLA @ No. 12 USC Utah @ No. 18 Washington
California @ No. 16 Stanford
Nebraska @ No. 13 Penn State
Virginia @ No. 2 Miami
SMU @ Memphis
No. 24 Navy @ No. 9 Notre Dame
Week 11 Record: 6-4.
Overall Record: 81-29.
Chase Zayac:
Tulsa @ No. 23 South Florida
No. 17 Michigan @ No. 5 Wisconsin
No. 24 Kentucky @ No. 7 Georgia
UCLA @ No. 12 USC Utah @ No. 18 Washington
California @ No. 16 Stanford
Nebraska @ No. 13 Penn State
Virginia @ No. 2 Miami
SMU @ Memphis
No. 24 Navy @ No. 9 Notre Dame
Week 11 Record: 4-6.
Overall Record: 76-34.
Chinedum Wejinya:
Tulsa @ No. 23 South Florida
No. 17 Michigan @ No. 5 Wisconsin
No. 24 Kentucky @ No. 7 Georgia
UCLA @ No. 12 USC Utah @ No. 18 Washington
California @ No. 16 Stanford
Nebraska @ No. 13 Penn State
Virginia @ No. 2 Miami
SMU @ Memphis
No. 24 Navy @ No. 9 Notre Dame
Week 11 Record: 7-3.
Overall Record: 77-33.
Elimination Game of the Week: No. 17 Michigan (8-2, 5-2) was supposed to be out of the playoff race following their second loss, coming at No. 13 Penn State, but then all of a sudden, the Big Ten imploded and the Wolverines started playing better, winning three games in a row. If they can win their next two games against No. 5 Wisconsin (10-0, 7-0) and No. 8 Ohio State (8-2, 6-1), and then get help elsewhere and get into the Big Ten title game and somehow beat the Badgers again, then it'd be nearly impossible to keep Jim Harbaugh's team out. Even though all of that is highly unlikely, it's possible. But it starts here with a road game against undefeated Wisconsin. This game is going to come down to the quarterbacks because the running backs (Jonathan Taylor and Karan Higdon) and the defenses, always seem to bring it. However, the signal callers are up-and-down. Can Alex Hornibrook limit his turnovers, something he hasn't done in nearly a month? How will Brandon Peters fair in his first hostile environment as a starter? These two questions will define who wins this game. Two of our experts have Wisconsin winning, while one gave Michigan the nod.
Teams Eliminated:
Week 1: Florida (0-1)
Week 2: Stanford (1-1)
Week 3: Louisville (2-1)
Week 4: Mississippi State (3-1)
Week 5: Virginia Tech (4-1)
Week 6: Utah (4-1)
Week 7: San Diego State (6-1)
Week 8: USC (6-2)
Week 9: West Virginia (5-3)
Week 10: Oklahoma State (7-2)
Week 11: Notre Dame (8-2)
1. What is the likelihood that No. 17 Michigan (8-2, 5-2) can win their fourth straight game and pull of an upset on the road, at No. 5 Wisconsin (10-0, 7-0), handing the Badgers their first loss of the year? And going a step further, is it possible that the Wolverines can finish 10-2 with wins over Wisconsin and No. 8 Ohio State (8-2, 6-1) over the next couple of weeks?
Post: It's clear that Michigan is better of with Brandon Peters at the QB spot, because he gives them a true passing threat, and his confidence seems to be soaring following three straight wins, but I don't think that's enough to get the Wolverines a victory. However, it's much more possible now than it would have been a month ago. If this game were in Ann Arbor, I'd take Michigan to win. It's at Camp Randall, though, so give me Wisconsin. Jonathan Taylor will go for 100+ yards and help the Badgers stay unbeaten. And I'm not sure yet about the Ohio State versus Michigan game. We'll see how both teams play this weekend.
Zayac: It is hard to say whether or not Michigan can pull off the upset and I would answer it with - yes they can. The running game has found it's place and Brandon Peters has been stable. So much so that they have a shot against Ohio State the following week as well.
Wejinya: I think they have a good chance to pull off the upset, but I don’t think they will. Michigan will need for their offense to do a great job and their defense to continue to dominate Wisconsin's offense. I think they will lose their last two games and finish with a 8-4 record.
2. After No. 16 Stanford (7-3, 6-2) pulled off the upset of No. 18 Washington (8-2, 5-2), there is a three-way-tie atop the Pac-12 North with those two teams and No. 15 Washington State (9-2, 6-2). Who will win the division and go to the conference title game? And staying in the league, what are the chances that UCLA (5-5, 3-4) can save their season and pull off an enormous upset over rival, No. 12 USC (9-2, 7-1)?
Post: Give me Stanford to reach the Pac-12 title game, and they'll get a rematch with USC, who they lost to earlier in the year. Stanford's win over Washington saved their season, because now, all that needs to happen for a division title is a win over California at home and have Washington beat Washington State, also at home. That would create a tie between the Cardinal and the Huskies, and Stanford has the tiebreaker. In the South, USC has (finally) found their stride and will run away from UCLA before heading to the Pac-12 title game.
Zayac: I see Washington emerging and winning the Pac-12 North, despite last week's set back. USC will win against UCLA due to a poor showing by the Bruins this season.
Wejinya: I think that Washington State will reach the title because they look the best out of everyone in the North. USC will be able to win their fourth straight, as the Trojans look more consistent than they did in the beginning of the season.
3. After shutting the door on No. 9 Notre Dame's College Football Playoff hopes, does No. 2 Miami (10-0, 7-0) have to go undefeated to reach the four-team playoff, or do they have some room for error? And on the other side of things, how will the Fighting Irish respond this week, as they host No. 25 Navy (6-3, 4-3) after being eliminated by the Hurricanes?
Post: I think there's a scenario out there that Miami could beat Virginia and Pittsburgh and then lose to Clemson in the ACC title game, and still reach the CFP, but it's very unlikely. They'd need Auburn, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin to all lose at least once more. But hey, it's possible. Miami doesn't need to worry about scenarios, though, they should just focus on winning three more games. It's simple. Notre Dame will beat Navy this weekend, but it's a moot point. They're out of playoff contention. It was a great rebound year for the Fighting Irish, as they should win between 8-10 games after a porous 4-8 record last season.
Zayac: Miami will have to go undefeated to reach the playoff this season. This is due to the fact that Clemson will have the right of way to the playoff forcing the 'Canes to knock them off. Notre Dame on the other hand will not make the playoff, winning against Navy, but losing to a tough Stanford team the following week.
Wejinya: I think Miami will have to go undefeated for the rest of the season if they want to reach the CFP, it’s too late in the season to have a loss. They would not have enough time to bounce back from it. Notre Dame will be able to bounce back, though, and win their final two games against Navy andStanford
*Maximum of 20 Points.*
Heisman Standings:
1. Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma QB) - 20 Pts.
2. Bryce Love (Stanford RB) - 17 Pts.
3. Jalen Hurts (Alabama QB) - 10 Pts.
4. Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin RB) - 7 Pts.
5. Saquon Barkley (Penn State RB) - 5 Pts.
Movement: Baker Mayfield (+0) is the favorite, by a pretty good margin at this point, and he only solidified that belief with 300+ yards and three more touchdowns against the Horned Frogs. Bryce Love (+0) remains in the second slot,, after rushing for 166 yards and three scores versus the Huskies. Jalen Hurts (+2) looked cool and calm in the final minutes against the Bulldogs, and even though his statistics don't stake up with all other quarterbacks, he finds a way to win. Hurts is 24-1 in his career at Alabama, and this is his highest ranking to date. Jonathan Taylor (+2) has finally cracked into our standings after another solid week against the Hawkeyes, and he's now our leader for Big Ten Player of the Year, ahead of Saquon Barkley (-2) who failed to rush for 100+ yards for the third straight game and fourth time in the last five games.
College Football Playoff Picks - Week 1:
College Football Playoff Picks - Week 10:
Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated.
