NBA: Conference Finals Preview
The First and Second Round are now behind us, as we only have four teams remaining in the Conference Finals. We will see (1) Golden State take on (2) San Antonio in the West and (1) Boston against (2) Cleveland in the East. Our NBA Staff of Tunde Aduroja (9-3), Caleb Henderson (8-4), Charles Post (11-1), Blake Stoll (11-1), Chinedum Wejinya (10-2), and Chase Zayac (10-2) will predict who advances to the 2017 NBA Finals.
No. 1 Golden State Warriors (67-15, 8-0) vs. San Antonio Spurs (61-21, 8-4):
Before we talk about anything else pertaining to this series, we have to talk about Kawhi Leonard's injury. The Spurs don't really have much of a chance without him. His combination of bruising offensive moves, isolation scoring, and smothering wing defense is irreplaceable for the Spurs. Johnathan Simmons is a solid basketball player, but he doesn't have Leonard's scoring chops. For San Antonio's sake, hopefully, Leonard is healthy to play and play well.
To beat the Warriors, one must take advantage of their preference to play small ball. The Spurs appear to be uniquely equipped to do just that, since LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol both have the ability to isolate in the post and score. That also means that there might be an opportunity for San Antonio to score off of offensive rebounding. There is one issue, though. Draymond Green is shooting 50 percent from the three-point line in these playoffs, and if he's shooting like that, the Warriors are probably unbeatable.
The Spurs have shown a preference for more traditional two-big lineups, but if Green is shooting that well, his man (probably Aldridge) will have to get out on the perimeter to contest. Pay attention to Green's three-point shooting percentage early in this series. If he continues to shoot at such a high percentage, Gregg Popovich might be forced to downsize to smaller lineups. Unfortunately, the Spurs' small lineups simply don't have enough juice without a healthy and effective Kawhi Leonard.
-Tunde Aduroja.
The Warriors are 8-0 in the playoffs with sweeps over the Trailblazers and the Jazz, while the Spurs have eliminated the Grizzlies and Rockets in six games each. Golden State is one of the best passing teams of all-time, and they make the game look so easily because of their insane skill nearly across the board. The Warriors simply spread the ball around to whoever has the hot hand and go from there. And fortunately for them, they have a ton of players that catch fire frequently.
Kevin Durant is going to be going head-to-head with Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, depending on Leonard's injury. Draymond Green will be tasked with guarding the bigger Lamarcus Aldridge. Meanwhile, Stephen Curry will be opposite the inexperienced Dejounte Murray and the aging Manu Ginobili. As seen by his 40 (!) points in Game 1, Curry should have a field day against the Spurs. If his shot is falling, which it usually is, this series will be over quicker than most of us wish.
A huge reason for San Antonio's low probability is the lasting ankle injury of their best player, Leonard. He went down twice in Game 1 in agony and could miss time during the series. Leonard is the Spurs' best player and the focal point of their offense. The former San Diego State star has become a great isolation player and has developed the ability to hit open players when a double team comes. Without him, Gregg Popovich's team must play from the inside-out, and will need big games from Aldridge and Pau Gasol.
I was really looking forward to this series because San Antonio is one of the few teams that can compete with the Warriors, highlighted by their 25-point lead in Game 1, but without Tony Parker and Leonard's ankle being gimpy, it should be another quick round for the two-time defending Western Conference champions.
-Charles Post.
Tunde Aduroja: Warriors (4-1)
Caleb Henderson: Warriors (4-0)
Charles Post: Warriors (4-1)
Blake Stoll: Warriors (4-2)
Chinedum Wejinya: Warriors (4-3)
Chase Zayac: Warriors (4-2)
No. 1 Boston Celtics (53-29, 8-5) vs. No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers (51-31, 8-0):
In many ways, the Warriors and the Celtics are similar defensively. Both teams have a dearth of sensational perimeter/wing defenders. The Warriors have four extremely capable on-ball defenders in Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andre Igoudala, and Kevin Durant. Boston has Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Jaylen Brown, who will probably all get chances to guard LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.
At this point, you might be saying: What do the Warriors have to do with this? In last year's NBA Finals, we saw the Cavaliers consistently attack Stephen Curry by screening with his man and forcing him to switch onto LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. I'm actually of the opinion that Curry is a good defender, but he was clearly the worst perimeter defender on his team, and the Cavs routinely went at his neck on their way to the NBA title. The Celtics clearly have a defensive weak link in Isaiah Thomas, and Cleveland will almost certainly attack him. The Cavs are probably the best team in the NBA at attacking defensive weak links. They are simply ruthless at forcing mismatches, and Thomas will probably put through a million and one screens (on ball and off) in this series.
In their last series, the Cavs routinely trapped and forced the ball out of the hands of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, forcing Toronto's bigs to make plays on the short roll. Serge Ibaka and the Raptors' bigs weren't able to read the floor fast enough to find the open man on the resulting 4-on-3, and the Cavs advanced with relative ease. Trapping Thomas in this series might be tough, since Al Horford is a fantastic passing big with the chops to read the floor and find the open man in a way that Ibaka couldn't. However, the Cavs can still force the ball out of Thomas's hands. While Avery Bradley can certainly score, he hasn't shown great isolation capabilities, and Boston doesn't have a ton of shooters to make Cleveland sweat.
Cleveland, on the other hand? They've got eight shooters on their roster, and they have the ability to play five shooters at a time. Expect to see some five-shooter lineups from Cleveland that will simply prove impossible to stop due to the spacing. Besides all of that, Boston has shown that they aren't a great rebounding team.
While we're pretty far removed from their struggles to box out Robin Lopez in Game 1 and 2 of their opening round series, it's still worth noting, especially since Tristan Thompson is one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA. To finally neutralize Lopez in that first-round series, Boston made sure to get two bodies on Lopez whenever a shot went up. They might have to employ a similar strategy on Thompson. Otherwise? It could get ugly on the boards. Overall, I think Cleveland has too much shooting for Boston. I also think that the Cavs are simply too good at attacking other teams' defensive weaknesses. Boston is an excellent team, but this will be the end of their road.
-Tunde Aduroja.
The Celtics are the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, but let's be honest, after going just 8-5 in Round 1 and 2, against the Bulls and Wizards, no one expects them to beat the Cavaliers who have ran through the Pacers and Raptors with ease. I really like this Celtics team because they have a little bit of everything, but the Cavaliers are simply too dominant. Lebron James and Kyrie Irving are top-10 isolation players in the league, and are able to get to the rim pretty much whenever they want, and if someone can stop them on the way to the bucket, there are always a plethora of shooters spotting up on the perimeter.
On Boston's end, they play through the 5'9 Isaiah Thomas. He is one of the best players in the league at coming off high ball screens ready to shoot. Thomas gets 5-10 three-point looks per game directly off of the pick, and if he's hitting them, the Celtics are a tough team to deal with. Thomas is even more difficult to guard because once IT4 hits a couple from downtown, he is able to hesitate on the overzealous big man, and get straight to the rim which opens up the floor for other scorers like Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and Al Horford.
However, even if Boston plays their A-game, they're unlikely to win more than one game against James and Co. Crowder and Jaylen Brown will be forced to defend No. 23 and they don't stand a chance against the future Hall of Famer, because of James' ability to finish in the paint, find open shooters, and get to the free-throw line.
-Charles Post.
Tunde Aduroja: Cavaliers (4-2)
Caleb Henderson: Cavaliers (4-0)
Charles Post: Cavaliers (4-0)
Blake Stoll: Cavaliers (4-1)
Chinedum Wejinya: Cavaliers (4-2)
Chase Zayac: Cavaliers (4-1)
Photo Credit: Yahoo Sports! and SB Nation.
